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Hezbollah... Questions About the Future of Its Weapons After Southern Withdrawal
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Military and leadership losses suffered by Hezbollah put it at a historic turning point that may affect its political and military role in Lebanon
Hezbollah responded to unprecedented pressure following intensive Israeli military strikes by initiating acceptance of a ceasefire agreement requiring withdrawal of its forces and equipment from vast areas in southern Lebanon.
Hezbollah remains pivotal in the Lebanese political scene, despite rising opposing voices demanding it be stripped of its massive military arsenal.
Hezbollah emerged as a unique military force that retained its weapons after the end of the civil war (1975-1990) under the pretext of "resisting Israel," which raises questions about the validity of keeping its weapons if it withdraws from border areas.
Lina Khatib, researcher at Chatham House, concludes in a statement to AFP: "Hezbollah is under unprecedented pressure," adding that "the ceasefire agreement terms pave the way for dismantling its military capabilities."
Hezbollah suffered heavy losses after opening a "support front" for Gaza from southern Lebanon, following the outbreak of confrontations between Hamas and Israel after the October 7, 2023 attack.
Israel launched a devastating military operation on September 23 targeting Hezbollah strongholds in Beirut's southern suburbs and southern and eastern regions, followed by ground incursions in border areas.
Estimates from a source close to Hezbollah, speaking anonymously to AFP, indicate hundreds of fighters have fallen since late September.
Imad Salamey, head of International Relations and Politics at the Lebanese American University, believes that "the war undoubtedly weakened Hezbollah militarily, after suffering major leadership losses and reduced operational capabilities," but "it wasn't defeated."
Hezbollah members violently resisted Israeli forces during their advancement attempts toward border towns in southern Lebanon, confirming the Israeli army's inability to "establish presence" in any of these areas.
Since the ceasefire took effect Wednesday dawn, Hezbollah supporters began celebrating what they considered a "victory," ignoring the extensive destruction left by Israeli raids.
Hezbollah officials organized field visits for media in southern areas, seeking to prove their continued influence and control.
Hezbollah MP Hassan Fadlallah told AFP from Bint Jbeil city near the Israeli border that the "resistance" has no "visible weapons or deployed bases," emphasizing the impossibility of removing party fighters from their original villages and towns in the south.
According to analysts, Hezbollah's military capabilities exceed the Lebanese army's equipment and weapons.
The French and American-backed ceasefire agreement terms include Hezbollah's withdrawal beyond the Litani River, 30 kilometers from the Israeli border, with military positions being handed over to the Lebanese army.
After the 2006 war, Hezbollah maintained a secret presence in southern Lebanon, enhancing its military capabilities and building an advanced tunnel network, according to military experts' estimates.
A Lebanese official, speaking anonymously to AFP, revealed that French and American participation in the truce monitoring mechanism might help restrain Hezbollah this time.
The agreement also includes increased monitoring of the Lebanese-Syrian border to prevent weapons smuggling to Hezbollah through Syria, according to military experts' analyses.
Internally, criticism of Hezbollah is increasing, accusing it of embroiling Lebanon in military conflict, especially with the approaching presidential elections scheduled for January 9.
Researcher Lina Khatib concludes her analysis saying: "Lebanon faces an opportunity to reconstruct the internal political scene to eliminate Hezbollah's dominance for the first time since the party overwhelmed political life in the country about two decades ago," adding that "this can only happen through genuine national dialogue including everyone, supported by the international community."
Levant-Agencies
