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Thursday, 07 November 2024
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Reading the repercussions of the US elections
باسل كويفي

In his electoral campaigns, the elected American President Donald Trump focused on and emphasized "America First." The 47th president turned the elections into a red hurricane that hit America. He faced trials, legal pursuits, and assassination attempts, yet achieved these historic victories for himself and his party, becoming the president of the greatest power in the world with full powers and minimal legislative constraints, having won the popular vote and the votes of the "Electoral College," as well as most of the justices in the Supreme Court and the majority of the House and Senate for the Republican Party.

Consequently, Trump may become a fully empowered leader able to declare wars, send troops, impose international sanctions, and appoint cabinet members and security and military leaders of his choice. The question arises: what next?

The Gaza and Lebanon wars, the Middle East facing challenges of reconstruction and dangers from arms races and the crisis of militias and armed factions scattered in certain regions worldwide, the war in Ukraine, tensions in the South China Sea, and the Iranian nuclear file. What are the implications of the Republicans' "triple hegemony" on American policy both domestically and internationally?

Trump's friends and foes alike, such as Netanyahu, Orban, Zelensky, and Macron, all rushed to congratulate him, describing it as a "historic return." Congratulatory messages were also sent by the King of Saudi Arabia, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, the President of the United Arab Emirates, the Egyptian President, the Emir of Kuwait, and the Iraqi Prime Minister, who affirmed Iraq's unwavering commitment to enhancing bilateral relations and that this new phase should deepen cooperation in various fields to contribute to sustainable development.

Netanyahu’s dismissal of his Defense Minister Gallant a day before the American elections, while retaining the Chief of Staff, indicates that the political rift is the reason for the dismissal. Therefore, the political trajectory of the Zionist entity may be one of extreme right-wing extremism, which could keep the region on the brink of a volcano.

In Trump's electoral program that supports peace and the cessation of wars, will we witness the start of a return to stability in the region in the near and medium term, where his bet is on supporting the American economy through significant changes in global trade and energy interests, considering himself a dealmaker to mitigate conflict zones and halt the bleeding of military and financial aid that has impacted the global economy?

In my opinion, regarding the Palestinian issue, Trump does not hide his support for Israel, but he will have to push for a two-state solution based on a just principle and positive cooperation with regional countries.

The Ukrainian war will conclude based on the principle of settlements, through which the republics that joined Russia will be granted the right to self-determination.

Relations between America and Russia will develop slowly as a reflection of the policies that the new American administration will implement. Europe and China will face further pressures on their economies backed by Trump's slogan "America First."

The options in Syria are numerous, and implementing Resolution 2254 with a Syrian flavor may be the beginning, along with a consensus with Turkey on a timeline for withdrawing from Syrian territories to normalize relations based on mutual interests, along with administrative decentralization in areas they withdraw from and in northeastern Syria, which is controlled by the Autonomous Administration. Trump is expected to redeploy or withdraw his forces from Syria based on the security agreement with Iraq and regional agreements.

Amid all these changes, it seems that the contours of the Middle East are on a hotplate, requiring us to begin determining the direction and renewing our approaches. A transparent national dialogue based on a roadmap and constitutional principles could provide a safer exit for our future, encompassing its three pillars (political, economic, and social) with the participation of all Syrians without exception, except for extremist armed organizations, to develop visions that contribute to and enhance national unity and preserve our Syria amid the changes sweeping the region and the world.

We must restore the voices of the wise, the rational, and creativity in light of the loss of ideologies and the differences in terms of nationalism, ethnicity, sects, and identities, to surpass the feeling that resembles waiting in a train or airport station.

There is hope and a suitable opportunity to uplift the Syrian capabilities and competencies that address issues and restore confidence in rebuilding Syria and its recovery and relationships with countries of the world through political flexibility that realizes mutual interests, sovereignty, stability, security, and peace for the elevation of the Syrian people, and the peoples of the region and the world.

Levant: Engineer Basel Kweifi