Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, the man who changed the face of Turkey since the beginning of the century, is approaching the final crossroads in his political career after more than two decades in power, switching between the premiership and the presidency. Erdoğan has turned into what resembles the founding father of a new era, with its pros and cons, combining religious pragmatism, neoliberal economics, and Ottoman nostalgia into one package. However, every era has an end, and the question is no longer if he will leave, but when, how, and who will come after him...?

Constitutionally, Erdoğan's current presidential term ends in 2028, and theoretically, he will not be allowed to run for office again unless the constitution is amended or early elections are called. With his advancing age (born in 1954) and declining health in some public appearances, estimates are increasing that 2027 will be the year of his gradual departure from the scene, whether through voluntary transition or through escalating internal and external pressures that make his continuation impossible. This does not necessarily mean an announced withdrawal, but rather a smart and calculated transfer of power, akin to leaders who create their successors and then fade into the background.

But who will carry this heavy legacy? This question is whispered within the corridors of the Justice and Development Party (AKP), openly discussed in opposition salons, and closely monitored in Western and Arab capitals.

Within the ruling party, for a time, it seemed that Berat Albayrak, the former minister of finance and Erdoğan's son-in-law, would be the political heir. An economist with strong connections in the Gulf and Russia, he was close to high financial circles. However, his sudden resignation in 2020, his near-total withdrawal from the scene, and the covert smear campaigns against him from within the party partially undermined this ambition and made his chances of a comeback limited, though not completely closed. Some believe Albayrak will return at the moment of a leadership vacuum, but not with the same power card, rather as a negotiator.

In contrast, there are figures within the party who are moving quietly but confidently. Prominent among them is Fuat Oktay, the Vice President, a calm technocrat who does not stir up storms. He lacks Erdoğan’s charisma but enjoys the trust of the security apparatus and state institutions. He is more of an administrative model than a politician, making him a comfortable option for the establishment if they desire a smooth transition.

Then there is former General Hulusi Akar, the former Minister of Defense, who has remained loyal to Erdoğan but has retained a significant degree of independence and military respect. He is not viewed as an opponent but as a professional officer capable of managing the threads of security and state during a critical transitional moment. It is important to remember that Turkey is a country where the military institution remains a silent yet highly influential player, making a man like Akar a serious possibility, especially if security challenges increase.

As for Süleyman Soylu, the former Interior Minister, he is a controversial figure. He enjoys great popularity among nationalists and conservatives, his rhetoric is fiery, and his positions are sharp, and he has a base within the party. However, he faces suspicion of involvement in internal conflicts and some old corruption files that the opposition occasionally waves around. Soylu could be the nationalist card played by the “deep state” if it decides to readjust its direction inward, particularly if Western pressure increases.

Outside the ruling party, opposition names are emerging strongly, especially in the major cities that are beginning to breathe outside Erdoğan’s shadow. The most significant of these is Ekrem İmamoğlu, the former Mayor of Istanbul, the handsome politician who managed to break the ruling party's monopoly on the economic and political capital of the country. İmamoğlu possesses popular charisma and rare communicative intelligence, making him a star of the opposition and a real threat to Erdoğan. However, the state did not delay in moving against him, as he has begun to face legal pursuits and has already been convicted in cases seen as politically motivated. The aim is clear: to prevent him from running in the future. But in Turkey, sometimes prohibition creates a leader.

The second name is Mansur Yavaş, the Mayor of Ankara, the opposite model of İmamoğlu. Quiet, camera-shy, but effective, he enjoys acceptance among both Islamists and nationalists. Yavaş represents the “responsible authority” that may convince some state institutions that he is the less risky alternative. If this man runs, he could be the dark horse.

As for Kemal Kılıçdaroğlu, the leader of the Republican People's Party, he lost the 2023 bet, and despite his long struggle, his chances in 2028 will be almost non-existent, not only due to age but also due to eroded confidence in him within his own party.

Dr. Mohamed Al-Arab