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Wednesday, 23 April 2025
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The Negotiation Scenario and the Survival of the Iranian Regime
Mohammed Al-Moussawi

The American negotiations with the Iranian regime are a step toward the survival of this regime, defining its opportunities and sphere of influence in the region. Scenarios of conflict, negotiations, and the ebb and flow between the United States and the Iranian regime are something we have become accustomed to in the Middle East; however, what is new here is the smoothness with which the mullahs' regime operates under the whip of American demonstrative threats. The Iranian mullahs are inviting the U.S. administration to invest $2 trillion in the sectors of oil, energy, transportation, and technology in Iran, meaning that the mullahs have no objection to returning Iran and the Iranian market to American dominance. This implies giving the United States the opportunity to reclaim its full hegemony in the region, thereby reducing China's role and restoring it to its previous status as the leading power in the region. Thus, negotiations will not proceed according to the current escalation indicators but will be framed according to a plan for repositioning in the region, which will allow President Trump's administration to reward its commercial friends and allies.

To begin with, we must acknowledge that the current negotiations are merely an American effort to reclaim lost spheres of influence in the vulnerable Middle East, which is susceptible to impositions. The American side views itself as the sovereign arbiter that is indispensable amid the fragile crises afflicting the region, whether it is the issue of the Palestinian occupation for more than a hundred years or the hegemony and expansion of the Iranian mullah regime and its tools and troops in the region. Do not be surprised, dear reader, by my use of the term (fragile crises); they truly are fragile, provided that the will exists to confront them, and they are formidable under the catastrophic weakness and frailty currently present. As the saying goes, "The misfortunes of a people are a benefit to another." These calamities, amidst this humiliation, transform the Arab region into a supple area welcoming all forms of impositions, unlike other regions of the world. Consequently, the American side currently negotiating with an aggressive, rogue party does not aim to deter it or end its nuclear project, which harms America and none of its allies, except the Arabs. Rather, the Trump administration is negotiating with the mullah regime to re-tame and program it, keeping it in power to continue playing the role of the region's policeman, as the Shah once did. Simultaneously, the mullahs affirm that President Trump is a businessman and that they will find a way to negotiate with him, implying that a businessman has no homeland or religion and that the principles of trade regarding profit and loss will direct the negotiations to where the mullahs desire, especially after the enticing investment offers they have presented to the American side.

The large American military mobilizations in the region are not necessarily aimed at delivering military strikes against the regime; rather, they are intended to regulate the negotiation process by raising the ceiling of demands in light of the current conditions related to the Iranian nuclear program and its declared aspects (8 tons of enriched uranium, about 300 kilograms of highly enriched uranium, and advanced nuclear technology and infrastructure that cannot be easily dismantled). The Iranian nuclear program did not possess these conditions when Trump withdrew from the negotiations. This withdrawal provided the mullah regime with the opportunity and time to develop the nuclear project, bringing it to a level where they can instantly produce seven nuclear bombs and manufacture a nuclear bomb monthly with ease. In any case, both parties are disciplined within an agreed-upon space, and events will not escalate to a level that could lead to "war" stemming from the current escalation; it will not exceed pressure and display tactics. War will not occur without reverting to the Gulf states, which are keen to prevent any large-scale military actions between the United States and the Iranian regime due to the dangers posed to them. The West is fully aware that the mullahs' gentle missiles fired at the occupied Palestinian territories will not remain gentle should the mullahs face severe military strikes.

The efforts and pressures from the United States and its allies do not aim to resolve the Middle Eastern crisis, dismantle the Iranian nuclear program, end execution campaigns and human rights violations, or alleviate the suffering of the Iranian people by overthrowing the dictatorial mullah regime that has ruled Iran since 1979. If that were their goal, they ought to support the Iranian resistance, which has exposed the mullahs' secret nuclear program that the international community overlooked and calls for the establishment of a democratic, non-nuclear republic that respects human rights in Iran. On the contrary, we have not seen any support for the struggles of the Iranian people or even recognition of their right to defend themselves against the criminal practices of the Revolutionary Guard militias and other repressive institutions of the regime. Moreover, this global system has strategically overlooked the Iranian nuclear program until its strength grew, not for any other reason than to continue taming the Arab.

I have not seen a successful conclusion to any negotiations hosted by Oman, especially concerning the mullah regime. In the end, these negotiations will conclude with “kissing your uncle… kissing your aunt,” as both parties, your uncle and your aunt, revolve around a "win-win" policy as long as there are those who pay and will continue to pay the price for these demonstrative conflicts. I also do not observe anyone among us learning from past lessons. Subsequently, a new phase of re-taming the region towards the mullahs of Iran will begin, imposing a political reality that prolongs the crisis and achieves the desired continuity of it, leading to the downfall of humanity and the collapse of nations as long as your uncle and aunt are well. As long as these peoples create their crises with their own hands, they relish the groans in tune with the crises. Each crisis makes you creative in complaining and lamenting.

Dr. Mohammed Al-Mousawi / Iraqi Writer

 

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