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Damascus Evades Supporting Hezbollah: Interest Calculations Outweigh Loyalty
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The Syrian regime's brief statement highlights a stark contrast between the significant military support provided by Hezbollah and the political hesitation in showing full solidarity with it in a mome
The Syrian regime's long silence, followed by a brief statement about the killing of Hassan Nasrallah, the leader of the Lebanese Hezbollah, has raised numerous questions about the nature of the relationship between the allies and the Syrian regime's calculations in the current stage. After more than 24 hours since the incident, the first official Syrian comment came in a statement not exceeding fifty words.
The noticeable delay and lukewarm response reflected a state of hesitation and caution from the Syrian regime, which seems to be trying to balance between the duty of showing solidarity with its most prominent ally and the desire to avoid any regional or international escalation that might harm its interests.
Ironically, Hezbollah, which played a pivotal role in supporting the Syrian regime and preventing its fall in the face of popular protests that erupted in 2011, did not receive a strong and clear stance from its ally in Damascus at this critical moment. The Syrian statement was limited to general phrases about "sharing in sorrows" and "announcing mourning for three days," without any explicit condemnation of the attack or identification of the responsible party.
The hesitant position revealed complex calculations by the Syrian regime. On one hand, the regime recognizes the size of the debt it owes to Hezbollah, which provided thousands of fighters and crucial military expertise that contributed to stabilizing Bashar al-Assad's rule.
On the other hand, the regime seems to fear the repercussions of any strong position that might lead to new regional or international isolation, especially in light of its recent attempts to reintegrate into the Arab and international environment.
Analysts believe that this hesitant stance may have negative consequences on the relationship between the Syrian regime and Hezbollah, as it shows that the regime's self-interest calculations may outweigh alliance commitments in times of crisis. It may also raise questions within Hezbollah and Iran about the extent to which the Syrian regime can be relied upon as a strategic ally in the future.
On another note, this weak position of the Syrian regime reflects the state of weakness and fragility it still suffers from, despite more than a decade passing since the beginning of the Syrian crisis. The regime, which heavily relied on the support of its external allies, especially Hezbollah and Iran, to quell popular protests and suppress the opposition, finds itself today unable to take a strong position in favor of these allies.
It appears that the Syrian regime is trying to maneuver in turbulent regional and international waters, ignoring the crucial role played by its allies in its survival. This approach may achieve some short-term gains for the regime, but it threatens to undermine trust between allies and weakens the regime's position in the long term. The question remains: Will the Syrian regime be able to continue this fluctuating policy without paying a heavy price from its allies in the near future?
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