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Beware the Octopus Doctrine

The return of “near peer” competition to the world has placed a shadow of inattention on many of the pre-existing conflicts and geopolitical fault lines. Nowhere is this truer than the state of tensions between Israel and Iran. Decades of animosity have not remained constant but have instead evolved and metastasised over time with the glaring absence being a large-scale conventional conflict between the two countries.
Israel’s approach over the past few years has been to target Iranian influence in its near abroad whilst using a covert focused effort to undermine its nuclear programme through cyber-attacks and assassinations. Syria has become the most violent battleground for the proxy aspect of the conflict with numerous Israeli airstrikes against Hezbollah and Iranian units in the country. Last week the Syrian Regime reported ‘heavy damage’ to its international airport in Damascus from Israeli missiles, closing the transport link to the outside world.
Likewise, Iran has looked to target or at least threaten Israeli interests around the world. This week the Israeli Government put out a warning for all of its citizens to urgently leave Istanbul due to intelligence of an imminent Iranian attack. This proxy to and fro may not last forever. Indeed, the new Israeli administration of Naftali Bennett has been in power for just over a year and has outlined a more assertive and arguably high-risk approach to Tehran.
Israeli officials now openly describe a new defense strategy known as the “Octopus Doctrine” aimed at the “head” of the octopus in Iran, and not just its “tentacles” across the region in places like Syria, Lebanon, Gaza and Iraq. This more aggressive policy stance coincides with the continued failure to replace or renew the “Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action” aimed at preventing Iran from acquiring a nuclear weapon.
Speaking to the media this week Prime Minister Bennett warned that Iran was “dangerously close” to producing nuclear weapons and was enriching uranium at an “unprecedented rate”. The combination of a new Israeli doctrine towards Iran at the moment in which their nuclear programme may be coming to fruition is a combustible crossroads. What is more the international systems and alliances that have traditionally provided mediation or diplomatic channels are currently swamped with the Ukraine crisis and its economic fallout.
Whilst we’re not looking at the prospect of Israeli tanks barrelling towards Tehran, it is not so far-fetched to speculate that the kind of strikes that we’re seeing in Syria could be replicated on Iranian soil. Rather than the supposedly more plausible deniability actions that suddenly take down Iranian’s networks or the use of drones, could more heavy-duty air and missile assets suddenly find themselves being used to take bigger chunks out of parts of the Iranian nuclear programme?
In the more immediate phase, it seems that both sides are signalling their intention to strikes against certain individuals with Iranian regime-affiliated media outlet publishing the names of five former Israeli military intelligence officers and current tech executives who are allegedly on Tehran’s hit list. Israel killed two Iranian scientists several weeks ago by poisoning their food, a Monday report in the New York Times claimed citing an Iranian official and two other sources connected to the government. The scientists, Ayoob Entezari and Kamran Aghamolaei, died in separate incidents under murky circumstances that Iran suspects were targeted killings.
Citing Prime Minister Bennett’s vow to pursue a policy of ‘death by a thousand cuts’ against Iran, it appears that Israel has widened its list of Iranian targets beyond the nuclear programme itself to include those linked to the country’s drone and missile programmes. Yet as an analysis from the Atlantic Council pointed out whilst Israel continues to enjoy impressive tactical successes strategically it “hasn’t achieved its goal of preventing Iran from having an advanced nuclear program”.
As the conflict in Ukraine reminds us, violence has its own escalatory logic that can go in vastly unpredictable directions and the key message from Israel’s public acknowledgment of the ‘Octopus Doctrine’ is that regional and global players will have to expand their political bandwidth to grip the situation before it gets out of hand. Yet if Iran’s nuclear programme has progressed as many fear, it is uncertain what options countries like the US, actually have, meaning that the prospect of a regional conflagration will continue to worsen.
BY: James Denselow
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BENEFIT Sponsors BuildHer...
- April 23, 2025
BENEFIT, the Kingdom’s innovator and leading company in Fintech and electronic financial transactions service, has sponsored the BuildHer CityHack 2025 Hackathon, a two-day event spearheaded by the College of Engineering and Technology at the Royal University for Women (RUW).
Aimed at secondary school students, the event brought together a distinguished group of academic professionals and technology experts to mentor and inspire young participants.
More than 100 high school students from across the Kingdom of Bahrain took part in the hackathon, which featured an intensive programme of training workshops and hands-on sessions. These activities were tailored to enhance participants’ critical thinking, collaborative problem-solving, and team-building capabilities, while also encouraging the development of practical and sustainable solutions to contemporary challenges using modern technological tools.
BENEFIT’s Chief Executive Mr. Abdulwahed AlJanahi, commented: “Our support for this educational hackathon reflects our long-term strategic vision to nurture the talents of emerging national youth and empower the next generation of accomplished female leaders in technology. By fostering creativity and innovation, we aim to contribute meaningfully to Bahrain’s comprehensive development goals and align with the aspirations outlined in the Kingdom’s Vision 2030—an ambition in which BENEFIT plays a central role.”
Professor Riyadh Yousif Hamzah, President of the Royal University for Women, commented: “This initiative reflects our commitment to advancing women in STEM fields. We're cultivating a generation of creative, solution-driven female leaders who will drive national development. Our partnership with BENEFIT exemplifies the powerful synergy between academia and private sector in supporting educational innovation.”
Hanan Abdulla Hasan, Senior Manager, PR & Communication at BENEFIT, said: “We are honoured to collaborate with RUW in supporting this remarkable technology-focused event. It highlights our commitment to social responsibility, and our ongoing efforts to enhance the digital and innovation capabilities of young Bahraini women and foster their ability to harness technological tools in the service of a smarter, more sustainable future.”
For his part, Dr. Humam ElAgha, Acting Dean of the College of Engineering and Technology at the University, said: “BuildHer CityHack 2025 embodies our hands-on approach to education. By tackling real-world problems through creative thinking and sustainable solutions, we're preparing women to thrive in the knowledge economy – a cornerstone of the University's vision.”
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