Turkey’s President Recep Tayyip Erdogan enjoyed strong domestic backing for last month’s contentious military incursion into Syria but already that patriotic bounce has begun to fade.

For a leader who had been under pressure, grappling with a troubled economy and setbacks in recent local elections, the assault brought a welcome shift in the public discourse as the country was engulfed by a wave of nationalist fervor. While foreign nations condemned Mr. Erdogan, at home the operation against the Syrian Kurdish militias that Ankara views as terrorists was overwhelmingly popular.

“During the operation — especially in the first two or three weeks — everyone was talking about it,” said Seren Selvin Korkmaz, director of Istanbulpol, a think-tank. “Erdogan gained space and time to maneuver.”

Now, with the military operation largely over, political analysts say it is striking how little political support Mr. Erdogan has gained.

Polling by Istanbul Economics Research (IER), a consultancy, found that 79 percent of voters deemed the operation a success. In contrast, support for Mr. Erdogan barely changed, with his ruling alliance gaining by just 2 percentage points, according to another survey by the consultancy, published at the start of November. Another agency, Metropole, gave the Turkish president a slightly larger, four-point bounce in popularity.

“Normally, one would expect much larger fallout than what happened,” said Can Selcuki, IER’s director. “Politics is at a stalemate right now. It seems that, no matter what the opposition says and what the government does, it doesn’t affect their votes.”

Mr. Erdogan may benefit in other ways — most notably from the strain the military offensive has placed on his political opponents.

A key factor behind the defeat of the president’s party in Istanbul and other big cities in elections in March was the decision by Turkey’s previously fractured opposition parties to team up.

The People’s Democratic Party (HDP), which draws much of its support from members of Turkey’s large Kurdish minority, played a critical role by asking its voters to support several candidates from the People’s Republican Party (CHP).

The military incursion into Kurdish-held areas of Syria tested that alliance. The CHP was one of several opposition parties to support the operation, while the HDP vehemently opposed it and has found itself on the receiving end of a fresh crackdown by authorities on Turkey’s Kurdish community.

“Of course it has negatively affected the relationship between the CHP and the HDP,” said Azad Baris, a vice-chairman of the HDP party. Right now HDP supporters, especially in Turkey’s Kurdish-majority eastern region, “do not want to hear anything about the CHP”, he said. 

Such statements are likely to please Mr. Erdogan, who last month said he wanted to see the break-up of the opposition coalition, describing it as “very, very important”.

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Although the next presidential vote is not scheduled until 2023, many in Turkish political circles believe that it will take place sooner. And Mr. Erdogan — a shrewd political operator who has dominated Turkish politics for the past 17 years — often appears to be on a constant election footing.

Officials from both the CHP and HDP insist that they can overcome this difference in Syria and will campaign together at the next presidential election. “For democracy, we have to do it,” HDP’s Mr. Baris said.

They are likely to be joined in the ranks of the opposition by at least two new parties. Former prime minister Ahmet Davutoglu and former deputy prime minister Ali Babacan, both of whom served for years in Mr. Erdogan’s governments, each plan to establish parties before the end of the year and ultimately capture votes from the president’s base, according to people familiar with their plans.

The swelling of the Turkish opposition, combined with a lackluster economic outlook, presents Mr. Erdogan with difficult challenges in the months ahead.

While a recession triggered by last year’s currency crisis ended more quickly than many economists predicted, the government forecasts growth of just 0.5 percent this year. Unemployment is close to a record high in seasonally adjusted terms and most analysts believe the government will struggle to deliver a quick return to the fast-paced growth that used to underpin Mr. Erdogan’s support.

With the onset of winter expected to drive home the impact of recent rises in gas and electricity prices, analysts say the popularity of Turkey’s latest military venture will be quickly forgotten.

“The impact of . . . international issues on domestic politics in Turkey is short term,” said Toygar Sinan Baykan, an assistant professor at Kirklareli University. “Problems regarding the rule of law, the economy — sooner or later the public will go back to discussing these issues.”