Prospects For Rapprochement Between Ankara and Damascus

Reconciliation between Ankara and Damascus has already started after hostility and estrangement for more than 11 years. The reason behind the antagonism and dispute between both states was the events of what has become known as the ‘Syrian Spring’ and Turkey's standing alongside the Syrian opposition loyal to Turkey.

The first signs of this normalisation between the two governments were embodied in Turkey’s military escalation against the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), with the consent of Damascus.

The ruling regimes in both countries are in urgent need of this reconciliation during the critical period they are going through, especially for the Justice and Development Party in Turkey. This move can even be considered for Erdogan and his party, such as winning the top prize in lottery.

Rebuilding relations with the Assad regime in Damascus will serve Erdogan's agendas on several fronts, especially in this stage that precedes the parliamentary and presidential elections in Turkey to be held in June 2023.

The issue of normalising relationships with Damascus is used by the Turkish opposition against Erdogan and his party in the media and electoral campaigns that precede the general elections. Moreover, the issue of more than three million Syrian refugees in Turkey, accusing Erdogan and his party of bringing and hosting them, which constituted an additional burden on the already exhausted Turkish economy. This issue, which negatively affects Erdogan's popularity, which has recently declined.

In this context, the Turkish opposition pledged to return all Syrian refugees in Turkey to Syria if it wins in the upcoming general elections. For this reason, Erdogan has threatened since May to launch a new military operation in north-eastern Syria against the Kurdish-led SDF forces and to construct a safe zone that accommodates about one million Syrian refugees currently residing in Turkey.

But after Erdogan failed to persuade Tehran and Moscow to give Turkey the green light to launch a large-scale military operation against Kurdish fighters in north and north-eastern Syria, Erdogan asked the Russian president to intervene to reform the situation between him and President Assad. Thus, if Erdogan succeeds in his endeavour, he will pull the rug from under the feet of the Turkish opposition and fight them with the same weapon they wanted to use.

Furthermore, Erdogan has become convinced that he will not be able to return the Syrian refugees to Syria or to fight the SDF forces without the approval and participation of the Syrian regime, which means in advance the approval and participation of Russia and Iran. Especially since hostility to the Kurdish forces and Kurdish aspiration in Syria is the most crucial common factor between Turkey, the Assad regime and Iran.

Likewise, accomplishing this matter serves Russia, since this will disturb the Americans who support the SDF forces. Thus, achieving this goal will negatively affect the American presence and role in Syria.

On the other hand, the Assad regime will seek to take advantage of this reconciliation by trying to re-establish its control over the Syrian opposition areas controlled by Turkey. The Assad regime will also benefit from the rampant Turkish hostility against the Kurds and SDF forces to be weakened and defeated and to acquiesce to the regime's unjust conditions.

All indications are that normalisation between Ankara and Damascus will inevitably take place. The reason is that achieving it is in the interest of the two ruling regimes in Ankara and Damascus. The biggest losers through this conciliation are the Kurds. The reason is not only because of the scarcity of options, but also because of political stupidity, if the expression is correct, and the failure of the Kurds to exploit all the available possibilities in the right place and time.

This is politics, as Otto von Bismarck said, “Politics is the art of the possible, the attainable — the art of the next best”.” But for Erdogan, it is also the art of making the possible.

Normalisation between Ankara and Damascus has already begun, and it is only a matter of time for the Turkish president to contact his Syrian counterpart and even meet him under the auspices of Moscow.