It isn’t easy to understand the complicated outcome of the Israeli election in March – the fourth in less than two years. Binyamin Netanyahu, the country’s longest-standing prime minister, has been asked to try and form a new government. If he succeeds – and his prospects are far from clear -  then there will be little chance of any kind of peace agreement with the Palestinians. And if he fails, there will likely still be little chance. Israel elections

 On April 6, two weeks after the March 23 poll, President Reuven Rivlin formally requested “Bibi” to try his luck, despite not winning an outright majority. All Israeli governments since 1948 have been coalitions which were dominated until 1977 by the Labour Party, or Netanyahu’s Likud in recent times. But Rivlin also said his consultations had let him to “believe that no candidate has a realistic chance of forming a government that will have the confidence of the Knesset”.

 The results of yet another inconclusive election were different from the three previous ones held since 2019. But the direction of travel is clear. Netanyahu, facing charges of bribery, fraud and breach of trust, is widely seen as motivated by his own personal interests and presenting them as for the good of the country. He was described recently as “more desperate and dangerous than ever, with nothing left to keep him in check.” Israel elections

 Bibi can count on the support of 52 Knesset members, from the Likud and other right-wing and religious parties. His principal rival, the centrist Yair Lapid, has been endorsed by 45 MPs. Naftali Bennett, of the right-wing Yamina Party, a settler leader, is backed by seven members. But a further 16, including the largely Arab Joint List, have not endorsed any candidate.

 The same thing happened after the 2019 election. What is referred to as “anyone but Bibi” parties then had their dream majority – 65 of the Knesset’s 120 seats. But they failed to translate that result into a concrete political achievement because the right-winger Avigdor Lieberman refused to join forces with the Joint List.

 Analysts argue that in Israel’s divisive political landscape, it is impossible for Arab and far-right, racist parties to join forces. Their shared loathing of Netanyahu is not enough to bridge the chasm between these extremes. The breakaway Islamist United Arab List said from the start that it would not back Lapid, but only the extremist Religious Zionism party explicitly opposed cooperating with it.

 The bottom line is that Netanyahu – in the most difficult situation he has ever faced-  is not supported by a majority of the Israeli public. His path to a 61-seat majority in the 120-member Knesset remains extremely precarious. But he doesn’t need a majority to rule for the sixth time. A cohesive minority that stands behind him is sufficient to enable him to stay in office and buy more time as caretaker prime minister or as head of a government like the one he formed with Blue and White leader Benny Gantz last time – only for their “rotation” agreement to fall apart.

 Speculation has already begun that Bibi may try to create some kind of “national emergency” to try to keep himself in power. It could be the continuation of Covid vaccinations or the challenging issue of economic recovery from the pandemic.

 Or more alarmingly, it could be a confrontation with Iran as US president Joe Biden tries to persuade Tehran to return the 2015 nuclear agreement, which Donald Trump abandoned. Last week an Iranian ship in the Red Sea was damaged by a mine in an attack that was widely attributed to Israel. And days later Israel appeared to confirm having carried out a cyberattack on the Natanz nuclear facility, which Tehran described as an “act of terrorism” which warranted a response. Israel elections

 Netanyahu used Holocaust Memorial Day on April 8 to issue a specific warning on that front: “These type of deals with extremist regimes are worth nothing,” he declared. “There is only one thing that we will be committed to – deterring all those who wish to annihilate us from achieving their goal," he said - in what one critic termed “a self-serving tirade.”

 It is too early to say what the outcome of the coalition talks may be, but no-one is ruling out a new fifth election later this year.

 Palestinians are also going to the polls – for the first time since 2006. Legislative elections are scheduled for May 22, with a presidential vote set for July 31. But if Mahmoud Abbas, now 85, continues to be a candidate, these too are unlikely to bring about significant changes, given internal objections to Abbas and enduring hostility between Fatah in the West Bank and the Islamist movement Hamas in the Gaza Strip.

 Not only is the final outcome of Israel’s latest election still unclear - which is a serious and perhaps insoluble problem with far-reaching implications for what is often flatteringly described as “the only democracy in the Middle East.” But it also continues to be hard to be optimistic about the future of the country’s bitter and unresolved conflict with the Palestinians. Israel elections

by: IAN BLACK  levant

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