Normalisation ties between Erdogan-Assad: Al-Nusra Front now in Afrin

Normalisation ties between Erdogan-Assad: Al-Nusra Front now in Afrin
October 15, 2022, 3:57 pm

Zara Saleh1

Last Thursday, the extremist group of Al-Nusra Front, well-known as "Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham", the Syrian branch of Al-Qaida, took control over the occupied Kurdish city of Afrin. The Kurdish areas of Afrin were occupied by Turkey and the Syrian opposition groups that were backed by Turkey since 2018. According to the Britain-based Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS), which controls most of the Idlib province, began clashes with Turkish-backed jihadist Faylaq Al-Sham (Al-Jabha Al-Shamia) in Afrin after these groups withdrew from the city.

After the HTS group have taken over the northwest of Syria, many civilians are afraid of the increase in abuses and violations, and the displacement began from the areas that had been taken over by the jihadist of HTS. Arguably, the plan to hand over Afrin to Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham after the withdrawal of the Syrian National Army (SNA) backed by Turkey, has not been a sudden plan of a fight between the militia group of HTS and SNA.

Such has been expected recently after the Russian plan to normalise the relationship between Ankara and Damascus. On the other hand, Turkish President Erdogan has agreed with the Russian plan following his failure to launch a new military operation against the Syrian Kurds and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

Added to that, both countries, the US and Russia, have refused to give a green light to Turkey to begin new operations against Kurds that could affect the stability of the region and the military plan against ISIS. After he failed to win Putin’s blessing, Erdogan appeared to reach for diplomacy with Syria.

Following their long-term security level negotiations, Ankara and Damascus have agreed with Moscow's plan of normalisation of their official relationship as this new U-turn would definitely fulfil their agendas and interests. On the one hand, Erdogan is facing new elections next year, in which the anti-refugee campaign led by his opponents of the Turkish opposition and Erdogan wants to retake this card from them through his plan, to send a million Syrian refugees back to Syria. Secondly, Erdogan is seeking Assad's regime's support to deal with the Syrian Democratic Forces considers as a PKK-affiliates group in Syria. On the other hand, Assad has approached to retake control over the Idlib province, which now is under Turkey and HTS control, and eventually Assad is seeking to regain control over all Syrian territories including Afrin. Furthermore, the Syrian regime is sharing the same "Kurdish Phobia" with Turkey, where they desire to take over the areas that are controlled by the SDF. In fact, both regimes are pleased that all north and northeast Syrian borders are not under Kurdish control.

Consequently, handing over Afrin to HTS, a radical and extremist group that is already on the terrorist list, would be the first step of the Russian plan for normalisation ties between Erdogan and Assad. Eventually, the terrorist group of HTS, which is in fact an Al-Nusra Front or Al-Qaida, and similar to ISIS as well, will be an easy target for Russia and the international coalition as well.