Over the last week, rapid and developing events took place in the countryside of Aleppo which started in the city of al-Bab in far- east and ended up unexpectedly in the takeover of the city of Afrin in the northwest. Ostensibly, the man that stands behind such a move is Abu Mohammed al- Jolani who had long eyed the Kurdish region.

Al- Jolani could been an appealing alternative to all extremist groups of the Syrian National Army (SNA) as he leads the most dominant force in pro-Turkey opposition held areas. He has always said his group was not antagonizing the West.

In 2012 Afrin fell to the control of Kurdish fighters of Peoples' Protection Units (YPG) which lost control to Turkish forces and the affiliated factions of SNA in the aftermath of "Operation Olive Branch" in 2018.

Since then, frontlines in Afrin, remained calm though human rights abuses against the indigenous Kurdish population was the sole predominant reality since then.

In June, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (formerly al- Nusra Front) marched upon the Kurdish region, but the attempt fell to the ground allegedly by Turkish intelligence services. However, the question that poses itself is why the operation was consented right now and what is the aim of such a takeover.

On the surface, the recent rapid development came on the background of the murder in the city of al-Bab of a media activist and his pregnant wife in which fighters of al-Hamza Division were involved.

Nonetheless, in a broader sense, the control by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) of the city of Afrin could not be linked solely to that al-Bab local factional occurrence.

Within the context of the Syrian Crisis, al- Jolani founded al-Nusra Front in 2012 with the absolute aim of toppling Syrian President Bashar Assad. The group attracted mass sympathy from Syrians. It engaged in violent battles against the Syrian regime forces though al- Jolani maintained they were not fighting Alawites.

It is beyond denial that the capture of the city of Afrin by HTS bore results without putting up much fighting. On the road to Afrin Faylaq al-Sham, a group supported by Turkey vacated all checkpoints and posts. The fighters advanced with seemingly no resistance put up by Faylaq al-Sham.

From a military point of view, the 'Afrin Affair' shows how weak and fractured the SNA factions are. They have been divided into two groups; those siding with al- Jolani and those against. This could- with the passage of time- lead to further defections and divisions. HTS has a history of subduing rival Islamic factions and absorbing their fighters.

The group has long controlled much part of the Idlib Province. It runs the areas under its control via the "Syrian Interim Government," a civil umbrella. However, there is another important question, could HTS man all these vast areas from Idlib up to Afrin and probably beyond?

The group in Syria is more popular than Islamic State which was largely made up of foreign fighters. Al-Nusra Front, by contrast, is made up mostly of Syrians.

Human rights abuses under extremist factions, factional infighting was also a factor that always kept Afrin a tense situation. The image of the Syrian opposition has been tarnished beyond repair. Afrin was the rock on which Turkey's backed Syrian opposition eroded.

Echoing such fears by civilians living in the city, HTS said in a statement that they would "Protect Arabs and Kurds."

Notably and most importantly, HTS's control of the predominant Kurdish cities, towns and villages came on the very same day Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan met in the Kazakh capital Astana.

In retrospect, on January 19, 2018 Russian Military Police pulled out of the Kafar Janeh base, the following day Turkish forces commenced the Afrin operation. 

This being the case- back in Kazakhstan- Putin courted Erdogan on Thursday by proposing a gas hub be developed on Turkish soil to be a "platform, not only for deliveries but also for determining prices because this is a very important issue." This gesture raises speculations on whether HTS would remain confined to Afrin or go beyond and for what a compromise.  

As punishment to the war on Ukraine, the west has imposed sanctions on Russia which in return has strangled gas deliveries. The new tsarist has his own cards to play too.

Putin's idea is to export more gas via the TurkStream gas pipeline running beneath the Black Sea to Turkey. Carrying natural gas from Russia to Turkey and further to Europe, the TurkStream was formally launched in January 2020. The pipeline could enable Russia to avert Ukraine as a transit route.

Putin ingratiating himself with the Turkish President on the gas file could make concessions to his Turkish counterpart elsewhere. Erdogan, to have Russian aspirations met, would find no better appeasement than a new salient of territory be taken in east Euphrates.

The Turkish long- announced though since then much delayed Rojava operation has always fallen on the Russian rocks. Putin this time could amend his position.

On Friday, Erdogan told reporters that he and Putin had instructed relevant authorities to carry out 'immediately' joint technical studies on the Russian leader's proposal to set up a potential gas supply center in Turkey. "There would be no waiting," Erdogan noted in his first comment on the proposal.

If so, Putin would consolidate his position in the gas arena against the West in the mid- term  and could shift Turkey to the Russian orbit in the long- term. Turkey, in turn, could benefit twice from Putin's unrepeatable and irresistible proposal. However, not without a sacrifice from Putin.

As fighting is going on in the vicinity of the 'symbolic' Kafar Janeh base, factions still controlling Azaz further east are on high alert for any advance by al- Jolani men. If that happens the way to areas known as "Operation Euphrates Shield" would be open.

Amid this status of the affair, the situation remains a delicate one. The retreated factions could be deployed elsewhere by Ankara in east Euphrates.  

Up to now, the whole matter seems an undisclosed mystery- not an unfounded one however- that is going to be unraveled in the days- probably weeks- to come though prospects of a new Turkish military operation into Rojava seem higher than ever.

 

BY: Lazghine Ya'qoube