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Nobel Economists Warn: Trump's Policies Threaten Economic Stability and Success
In a new letter signed by 23 Nobel laureate economists, they stated: "Among the key factors determining economic success are the rule of law and economic and political certainty, and Trump threatens all of these."
The letter, reported by CNN and reviewed by "Al Arabiya Business," was signed by over half of the Nobel Prize winners in Economics in the United States. It described Vice President Kamala Harris’s economic agenda as "significantly superior" to the plans laid out by former President Donald Trump.
The economists wrote: "Simply put, Harris’s policies will lead to stronger economic performance, with more robust, sustainable, and equitable economic growth." The letter was signed by 23 Nobel-winning economists, including two of the three most recent laureates.
The economists stated: "While each of us has different views on the details of various economic policies, we believe that Harris’s economic agenda will overall improve the health, investment, sustainability, resilience, job opportunities, and justice in our nation, and will significantly outperform Donald Trump's unproductive economic agenda."
The letter serves as a seal of approval for Harris less than two weeks before election day on an issue that voters consistently rank as the most important in economic polls.
The letter was led by Joseph Stiglitz, a Columbia University professor and 2001 Nobel laureate, marking the second major push in the campaign by a group of Nobel laureates.
Stiglitz also led an effort in June, along with 15 of his fellow Nobel winners, to highlight what the signatories said would be the "destabilizing effects" of a second Trump term on the U.S. economy. At that time, the group stated that Biden's economic agenda was also "significantly superior."
Trump dismissed the group's letter at that time, criticizing his campaign for those who signed it, describing them as "worthless economists out of touch with reality."
However, the new letter, which began to take shape after Harris outlined her economic vision late last month, includes seven new signatories and represents a wide range of expertise and approaches to dealing with the economy.
The expanded group includes two of the three most recent winners—Simon Johnson and Daron Acemoglu from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology. They received the award, along with James Robinson from the University of Chicago, last week for their research on how institutions shape countries that become rich and prosperous.
The letter is deliberately concise at just 228 words, reflecting an effort to secure consensus across a broader array of economists and a desire to elevate that consensus accurately, according to a source familiar with the process. It was crafted to incorporate feedback from the initial effort.
It also serves as a last-minute effort in the campaign to raise what the participants see as a sharp danger posed by Trump, both in his economic proposals and, in their view, the potential instability he could create in a region where certainty and stability are of utmost importance.
The letter refers to Trump's tariff and tax policies as inflationary and likely to lead to federal deficit inflation—a widely held view among economists. But it also issues a stark warning.
Despite warnings and forecasts from economists across the political spectrum, Trump has remained steadfast in his pledge to use the threat of sweeping tariffs as a cornerstone of his economic agenda.
Trump stated, "The most beautiful word in the dictionary is tariff." "It’s my favorite word."
He promised broad tax cuts beyond the 2017 tax law and pledged to eliminate taxes on tips, overtime, and Social Security benefits, which analysts say would cost trillions of dollars, all while pointing to tariffs and economic growth as a means to offset the loss of revenue.
Economists view tariffs as a tax on consumers who buy imported goods.
He has pledged to eliminate regulatory constraints broadly, and as part of his efforts, he has unleashed an increase in oil and gas drilling. He has also vowed to deport all undocumented immigrants in the U.S. in the "largest deportation effort" in the country’s history.
Trump has long had an advantage when it comes to the candidate voters believe will handle the economy better as they grapple with widespread discontent about the state and direction of the U.S. economy.
