On November 10,when Donald Trump announced – on Twitter of course – that Morocco had agreed to establish formal relations with Israel in return for US recognition of its claim to the Western Sahara, it was on the face of it yet another triumph for the most disruptive president in living memory – less than six weeks before he leaves the White House.

 King Mohammed VI was clearly unable to resist the temptation to advance the international legitimacy of his rule over the former Spanish colony and celebrate a milestone moment in the decades-long struggle against the Sahrawi Polisario liberation movement, which has always been backed by neighboring Algeria.

 In deciding to follow the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain and Sudan, the Moroccan monarch made a significant contribution to the erosion of traditional pan-Arab solidarity with the Palestinians, who remain as powerless to object to Rabat’s decision as they were in recent months with Abu Dhabi, Manama and Khartoum.

 Mahmoud Abbas, the president of the Palestinian Authority, was notably restrained – possibly because of the role of King Mohammed in acting as the guardian of Jerusalem for Muslims. But the veteran official Hanan Ashrawi, whose resignation was announced last week, lambasted a deal she described as “between bribery and blackmail”.

 The king reiterated his support for a two-state solution, but there was no disguising the fact that normalization with Israel has become the “new normal” across the Arab (and perhaps the Muslim) world. The most important country to watch is Saudi Arabia. If Riyadh decides to follow suit, others are sure to follow.

 Under Trump, the US has become the first ever country to recognize Moroccan sovereignty over the disputed territory since 1975. Following the occupation, half the Sahrawi population fled to Algeria, where they have lived for 45 years in refugee camps in the middle of the desert. The deal comes less than a month after a nearly three-decade-old ceasefire ended.  “The US believes that an independent Sahrawi State is not a realistic option for resolving the conflict and that genuine autonomy under Moroccan sovereignty is the only feasible solution,” the proclamation stated.

 In the big picture, the Sahrawi cause is far less well-known internationally than the Palestinian issue. It is also less toxic and divisive. Still, Polisario’s Saharan Arab Democratic Republic is recognized by more than 80 countries. It is a full member of the African Union. The European Union disassociated itself from the US decision, as did the UN and Russia. The 1991 cease-fire included the promise of a referendum on independence, as demanded by Polisario, but it has never taken place, despite repeated UN-mediated talks on holding a vote.

 It remains to be seen whether President-elect Joe Biden will try reverse his predecessor’s decision.  It is clear that the Democrat would come under pressure by pro-Israel groups to avoid a situation in which Morocco could use this as an excuse to nullify their recognition of Israel. Trump’s many critics responded to the news by saying that he had legitimized two occupations.

 Another reason for the lack of angry Palestinian reaction may that the Moroccan move was not that surprising. The kingdom’s links with Israel go back to the 1950’s, in part because of the large number of Moroccan Jews who emigrated to Israel in its early years. That continued with the cooperation of Rabat after the country’s independence in 1956. Mohammed VI has a senior Jewish adviser, as did his father Hassan II.  About one million Israelis are from Morocco or descended from those who were, ensuring a deep interest in that country. Israeli tourists visit regularly – 45,000 in 2019 - though so far via third countries.

 Israel’s Mossad secret service was also involved in the notorious assassination of the left-wing leader Mehdi Ben Barka in France in 1965. Clandestine connections with Morocco were vital in paving the way for the Egyptian president Anwar Sadat’s historic peace initiative in 1977.  In 1986 King Hassan hosted the then Israeli prime minister Shimon Peres at his palace in the Atlas mountains, and there was security collaboration against al-Qaeda in the early 1990s. Yitzhak Rabin paid a similar visit after the Oslo Accords in 1993. Liaison offices between Israel and Morocco were established in 1994 but closed after the outbreak of the second Palestinian intifada in 2000, fitting a regional pattern. They will be reopened as part of this agreement. Direct flights will also now be permitted.

 Still Polisario, like the PLO, is unlikely to disappear. “I think the status of Western Sahara is already determined by international law, so not by a tweet of a president who is already on his way out,” as one of the organisation’s representatives put it in response to the dramatic news from Washington. “So, the international law is clear and is set out in successive UN Security Council resolutions that were authored by the US itself, and that Western Sahara’s status will be determined by a referendum.” Whatever Trump claims, both conflicts – the Palestinians’ with Israel and the Sahrawis’ with Morocco – still need to be resolved.

IAN BLACK