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Lebanon’s political deadlock has no easy solutions: Experts

Since nationwide protests prompted the resignation of former Prime Minister Saad Hariri, Lebanon has been in a political deadlock. With no prime minister or cabinet amid a looming economic collapse, something must change in Lebanese politics – but it is unclear what.
No obvious alternatives to Hariri for PM
The immediate challenge is to find a replacement prime minister for Hariri.
Mohammad Safadi, who was endorsed by all the major political parties as a candidate to replace Hariri, withdrew after protesters took to the streets to denounce him.
“Protesters are asking for a government constituted and lead by independent, competent and non-corrupt figures. Mohammad Safadi does not comply with any of the above,” explained Hala Bejjani, Managing Director at the Lebanese human rights organization Kulluna Irada.
But choosing a new figure who meets protesters’ demands and is acceptable to the ruling elite is no easy task. No clear leader has emerged from the protests. Even if one did, the ruling political parties are likely to be hostile to any figure who challenges their interests.
Any new prime minister must “obtain the trust of the protesters, be representative of the ‘Sunni’ community
The deadlock has led some protesters in Sunni-majority Tripoli to begin mulling the return of Hariri despite protesting the status quo, revealed a report by Al Arabiya English.
Hariri himself is reportedly open to the idea and is seemingly deeply involved in the process of choosing the next prime minister – whether himself or someone else. On Wednesday, the Deputy Parliament Speaker Elie Ferzli was reported as saying “the will of Hariri” would determine the next prime minister, making it unlikely that the candidate chosen would represent a significant challenge to the current political status quo.
But the deadlock over the next prime minister is just one part of broader debates and uncertainty surrounding the future government in Lebanon.
Technocrats – but who?
Both anti-government protesters and government ministers from all the major parties have called for governance by “technocrats” or “specialists” as a potential solution to the current crisis.
Hariri has reportedly made his return as prime minister conditional on a cabinet of “independent technocratic ministers,” which would result in ousting his political rivals in government from the Free Patriotic Movement (FPM), Hezbollah, and Amal. These parties are open to the idea of Hariri as prime minister but want a “techno-political cabinet,” which Bejjani said, “is meant to keep some of the ministries in the hand of the traditional forces, and specifically the defense and interior ministries.”
Meanwhile, anti-government protesters, many of whom are committed to the entire resignation of the cabinet, have also pointed to a new technocratic cabinet as the solution.
But the term “technocrat” is “very vague,” points out Sami Zaghoub, Public Policy Researcher at the Lebanese Center for Policy Studies, allowing for multiple interpretations. According to Bejjani, some protesters are instead deliberately advocating for “politically independent, competent specialists” to avoid negative connotations associated with technocrats.
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Without an in-depth roadmap from demonstrators, it is unclear how a technocratic government would be able to solve Lebanon’s deeply entrenched political and economic problems. Protesters have been hostile to plans by Hariri or President Michel Aoun to use technocrats to push through their legislative agendas, which have been dismissed as insufficient to solve Lebanon’s deep-seated problems.
But any new Cabinet would require a new prime minister and the political support of enough of the elite to be functional. Without being elected, a technocratic government risks being appointed by the very political elite which protesters view as corrupt and partisan.
Even if elections were called, Lebanon’s current electoral system benefits the established political parties, with elections based on confessional affiliation. Civil society lists likely to be favored by protesters have struggled to a breakthrough in the past, with Paula Yacoubian currently the only MP from an independent electoral list associated with civil society organizations.
Radical alternatives – and risks
Other protesters have called for a more radical overhaul of the entire system.
Lebanon’s confessional system, in which politicians are elected along sectarian lines, has long been called out by politicians and protesters across the political spectrum – including many who benefit from it.
These protests have amplified those demands, with a younger generation deliberately avoiding any party political or sectarian symbols and various denominations revolting against the parties which claim to represent them, including Hezbollah.
“Protestors are denouncing a failed economic politic based on the capture of all the state constituencies by a group of sectarian leaders that were the warlords of the war that ended in 1991,” said Bejjani.
But in a country with a violent history, challenging the status quo – set up with the Taif Accord, which was seen as ending the Lebanese Civil War – comes with significant risks.
“The capture of the state by the sectarian powers is so complete, that an alternative system altogether means a total collapse of the political, social and economic fabric of the country,” warned Bejjani.
In this context, the country’s delicate political and sectarian balance could unravel, with Israel, Syria, Iran and other regional countries all able to influence Lebanese politics.
The risk is heightened due to the country’s ongoing economic difficulties, with experts predicting a severe economic crash on the horizon. Shortages of medical supplies and food are already setting in as banks have imposed withdrawal limits and reduced credit lines.
Louis Hobeika, an Economics Professor at Notre Dame University in Lebanon, also told Al Arabiya English that he had concerns over the ability of the Lebanese economy to meet protesters’ demands.
“What people are expecting from the public sector is no way compared to what the public sector can provide, unfortunately,” he said.
And economic problems are likely to further fuel discontent. “With lay-offs, devaluation of the lira and a consequent drop in the power purchase of a large number of Lebanese, we might be soon witnessing social unrest,” warned Bejjani.
Despite these risks, Lebanese people across the country continue to turn out onto the streets to denounce the political establishment and sustain the revolution until all of their demands are met - even if it is unclear what those demands will bring about.
source: Tommy Hilton
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During the meeting, shareholders approved all items listed on the agenda, including the ratification of the minutes of the previous AGM held on 26 March 2024. The session reviewed and approved the Board’s Annual Report on the company’s activities and financial performance for the fiscal year ended 31 December 2024, and the shareholders expressed their satisfaction with the company’s operational and financial results during the reporting period.
The meeting also reviewed the Independent External Auditor’s Report on the company’s consolidated financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2024. Subsequently, the shareholders approved the audited financial statements for the fiscal year. Based on the Board’s recommendation, the shareholders approved the distribution of a cash dividend equivalent to 10% of the paid-up share capital.
Furthermore, the shareholders endorsed the allocation of a total amount of BD 172,500 as remuneration to the members of the Board for the year ended 31 December 2024, subject to prior clearance by related authorities.
The extension of the current composition of the Board was approved, which includes ten members and one CBB observer, for a further six-month term, expiring in September 2025, pending no objection from the CBB.
The meeting reviewed and approved the Corporate Governance Report for 2024, which affirmed the company’s full compliance with the corporate governance directives issued by the CBB and other applicable regulatory frameworks. The AGM absolved the Board Members of liability for any of their actions during the year ending on 31st December 2024, in accordance with the Commercial Companies Law.
In alignment with regulatory requirements, the session approved the reappointment of Ernst & Young (EY) as the company’s External Auditors for the fiscal year 2025, covering both the parent company and its subsidiaries—Sinnad and Bahrain FinTech Bay. The Board was authorised to determine the external auditors’ professional fees, subject to approval from the CBB, and the meeting concluded with a discussion of any additional issues as per Article (207) of the Commercial Companies Law.
Speaking on the company’s performance, Mr. Mohamed Al Bastaki, Chairman BENEFIT , stated: “In terms of the financial results for 2024, I am pleased to say that the year gone by has also been proved to be a success in delivering tangible results. Growth rate for 2024 was 19 per cent. Revenue for the year was BD 17 M (US$ 45.3 Million) and net profit was 2 Million ($ 5.3 Million).
Mr. Al Bastaki also announced that the Board had formally adopted a new three-year strategic roadmap to commence in 2025. The strategy encompasses a phased international expansion, optimisation of internal operations, enhanced revenue diversification, long-term sustainability initiatives, and the advancement of innovation and digital transformation initiatives across all service lines.
“I extend my sincere appreciation to the CBB for its continued support of BENEFIT and its pivotal role in fostering a stable and progressive regulatory environment for the Kingdom’s banking and financial sector—an environment that has significantly reinforced Bahrain’s standing as a leading financial hub in the region,” said Mr. Al Bastaki. “I would also like to thank our partner banks and valued customers for their trust, and our shareholders for their ongoing encouragement. The achievements of 2024 set a strong precedent, and I am confident they will serve as a foundation for yet another successful and impactful year ahead.”
Chief Executive of BENEFIT; Mr. Abdulwahed AlJanahi commented, “The year 2024 represented another pivotal chapter in BENEFIT ’s evolution. We achieved substantial progress in advancing our digital strategy across multiple sectors, while reinforcing our long-term commitment to the development of Bahrain’s financial services and payments landscape. Throughout the year, we remained firmly aligned with our objective of delivering measurable value to our shareholders, strategic partners, and customers. At the same time, we continued to play an active role in enabling Bahrain’s digital economy by introducing innovative solutions and service enhancements that directly address market needs and future opportunities.”
Mr. AlJanahi affirmed that BENEFIT has successfully developed a robust and well-integrated payment network that connects individuals and businesses across Bahrain, accelerating the adoption of emerging technologies in the banking and financial services sector and reinforcing Bahrain’s position as a growing fintech hub, and added, “Our achievements of the past year reflect a long-term vision to establish a resilient electronic payment infrastructure that supports the Kingdom’s digital economy. Key developments in 2024 included the implementation of central authentication for open banking via BENEFIT Pay”
Mr. AlJanahi concluded by thanking the Board for its strategic direction, the company’s staff for their continued dedication, and the Central Bank of Bahrain, member banks, and shareholders for their valuable partnership and confidence in the company’s long-term vision.
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