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The Internal Crisis of the Iranian Regime After the Defeat in Syria... Reflections on Khamenei's Statements
Finally, four days after Bashar al-Assad's fall, Ali Khamenei broke his silence and stated in a speech that the Syrian youth will rearrange matters in Syria. But the real question is: why did the Iranian regime fail to save Bashar al-Assad?
In reality, Bashar al-Assad's regime was solely based on crimes, violence, murder, and executions. The images currently being shown from Assad's prisons depict horrific and sobering scenes. The notorious prison in Saydnaya, for example, is a model that Bashar al-Assad inherited from his father and his mentor, Ali Khamenei. His father, who was equally a criminal, brutally suppressed the uprising in the city of Hama in 1982. At that time, some pilots refused to carry out the bombings and were arrested. Some were executed, while others remained in prison until Bashar al-Assad's downfall.
The point here is that the Iranian regime itself does not possess the capacity to remain in power. After October 7 and the war that erupted in the region, Mr. Massoud Rajavi, the leader of the Iranian resistance, clearly stated that the Iranian regime aimed to temporarily cover up the uprising of the Iranian people under the guise of so-called victory. He emphasized that while this war was a display of tactical power, the strategic loser is Khamenei. As days passed, this became increasingly evident.
These combined events led to the collapse of the support that formed the base of Bashar al-Assad's dictatorship, namely the Iranian regime and Hezbollah. They no longer have the ability to withstand, and Assad's army collapsed. Khamenei was so confused that he remained silent for four days. It can be said that the Iranian regime received a blow that disturbed its balance, a balance that will never return. It's akin to a body that has been cut in half.
Khamenei's own statements were striking and reflected his imbalance. He said that the events in Syria were an American-Israeli conspiracy involving a neighboring state. He added, “In these difficult circumstances, we provided everything Syria needed, but Israel and America closed the skies and roads, and we could not deliver the aid.”
These statements are clear evidence that the Iranian regime is facing a genuine crisis. Khamenei added that "resistance is not weakened by pressure but grows stronger. The Syrian people are being killed now, but this increases the motives for resistance."
Internally, the Iranian regime faces a worsening crisis. Some are questioning: why did we go to Syria and spend $50 billion between 2012 and 2020? However, Khamenei justified this by stating: “We went to Syria for two reasons: to protect holy sites and to confront instability in Syria and Iraq, as their stability impacts Iran's security.” He added that “our operation was advisory, but the Syrian army had to fight the war, with assistance from the Basij forces coming from other places. If the army showed weakness, the Basij forces would not be able to do anything, and that is what happened.”
Khamenei also emphasized the importance of not underestimating the enemy and stressed the necessity of continuing resistance. He mentioned that Iranian intelligence warned Syrian officials several months ago, but they did not listen. Nevertheless, he stated that “Syrian youth will liberate the occupied areas, and the resistance front will drive America out of the region.”
At the end of his remarks, Khamenei warned that “anyone who speaks about the Syrian issue in a way that instills fear among the people is a criminal and must be dealt with by the judiciary.”
All of these matters reflect the extent of tensions within the Iranian regime, and these tensions will undoubtedly increase in the future.
**Levant: Mahmoud Hakmian**
