-
Kurds.. The balance of profit and pressure in the region
It appears to everyone that the Middle East is heading towards radical geographical and political transformations, which may be based on new foundations and principles that align with the demands of the peoples of the region on one hand, and with political, economic, commercial, and even military interests on the other, placing the region at the heart of global and regional conflicts.
The ongoing conflicts and the active military presence of Israel, supported by the United States and Western countries, reflect strategic changes in how regional crises are managed.
Today, Israel's military power is more complex and diverse than ever, demonstrating strength and skill in dealing with events. It engages with Iranian arms, such as Hamas and Hezbollah, in a manner characterized by smart tactics and maneuverability. This military power is not merely a deterrent; it also includes precise offensive strategies aimed at undermining Iranian influence in the region. This situation makes Syria and Iraq hotbeds within this conflict, wavering between chaos and military threats, thus placing both countries under increasing pressure from Israeli attacks that may drive all Iranian arms in these countries to instigate disturbances and chaos among the peoples of the region, causing panic and fear that lead to migration and displacement, further increasing the pressure on the United States and European countries to accept negotiations and compel Israel to halt its military operations in accordance with Iranian conditions.
On the other hand, Turkey closely monitors developments in the Middle East, considering itself a key player in this scene and working to impose its policies to gain more influence and interests. After its attempts to enhance its regional position by re-establishing diplomatic relations with Egypt and Gulf countries, it is also striving to accept the Syrian regime for normalization with it. Thus, we see Turkey beginning to rearrange its political cards in line with current circumstances, especially after calls for peace with the Kurds internally. This approach comes at a critical time to prevent winds of unrest and change from reaching its shores, while the attack on the military space company in Ankara, claimed by the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK), serves Turkey to undermine any efforts toward peace and security in Turkey and the Middle East in general, particularly in the countries where the Kurds reside.
In another aspect, the Kurdistan Region serves as another example of regional complexities, facing pressures from Iranian arms and pro-Iranian Iraqi factions. The presence of these groups poses a threat to the region's security and stability, making it difficult for the Kurds to maintain their autonomy. At the same time, the changing conditions in the Middle East may provide the Kurds with an opportunity to enhance their role in regional and global politics.
I believe it is imperative for the Kurds to play a prominent role in the upcoming stage in Syria, Iraq, Turkey, and Iran. In Iraq, Kurdish forces may seek to enhance their influence by cooperating with Western powers to confront the challenges posed by Iranian-backed factions.
As for Syria, the more complex situation may compel the Kurds to negotiate with the Syrian regime and its supporters to achieve political gains, which I do not foresee unless the regime changes its behaviors and accepts the provisions of UN Resolution 2254. In Turkey, dialogue with the Kurds could be an opportunity for Turkey to enhance internal stability, while the Iranian stance may require the Kurds to balance achieving their national and ethnic goals with pressures from the Iranian regime until there is a change in its behaviors.
Therefore, the Middle East remains a theater of increasing conflicts and tensions, reflecting the complexities of political and military transformations. Under these circumstances, it seems that the Kurds will continue to play a central role in shaping the regional scene, as they represent a winning card and a pressure point simultaneously. This requires the Kurds in neighboring countries to adapt their internal and external strategies according to the needs of each state, in line with the changing dynamics in the regional and international arenas and ongoing challenges.
Levant: عزالدين ملا (Aziz al-Din Mala)
