-
Eastern Europe at Boiling Point

Cynics describe the continued use of Russian military build-up and exercises as a ‘stunt’ designed to force opponents to the negotiation table and to push back on the possible accession of Ukraine into NATO. Earlier this year a similar series of events happened that deescalated following a Biden-Putin meeting and we shouldn’t rule out the same thing happening again. Yet seasoned US military observers have explained that Russian isn’t ‘sabre rattling’ but has actually got their swords out and could be poised to act.
The Washington Post reported leaked US Intelligence analysis that warned that the Russians had deployed into four different locations with 50 tactical battle groups and are likely poised to enter the country in early 2022. Putin’s Russia of course has a history of seizing territory in Ukraine and Georgia, speculation is that they could be looking to seize southern parts of Ukraine to give themselves a land bridge to Russian Occupied Crimea.
The Ukrainian flashpoint comes at a moment of a confluence of issues. Germany has just had an election and is undergoing a handover of power. Talks around reducing Europe’s energy dependency on Russia and the construction of gas pipelines are big issues. The crisis at the border between Poland and Belarus has only recently abated but the fact that a Russian ally was willing to weaponise refugees is a testimony to the poverty of relations.
Political leaders seem united on the narrative that ‘nobody wants a war’, but such sentiments have not been enough to prevent conflicts across history. Russia has warned war is 'highly likely' with Ukraine following orders to troops to remain 'combat ready'. The Kremlin has said that Kiev's desire to retake Crimea is "direct threat", as the US vows to respond following growing reports of a Russian invasion.
Playing political tennis with threats whilst conducting military manoeuvres on the ground at a time of such tension is of course a recipe for unpredictability and events taking a momentum of their own. The US have already started lining up the toolkit of actions that they could respond with. Perhaps most interestingly it includes cyber tactics, actions that are arguably even more unpredictable in impact and in what response it eludes from Moscow.
More conventional tactics have been seen before when Russia seized territory in the past fifteen years or so. Sanctions and economic tools are Washington’s go to tactics. The ruble fell about 1% against the dollar Monday to the lowest level since August on fears the tensions could trigger new sanctions. Secretary of State Antony Blinken said this month: “I can’t speak to Russia’s intentions. We don’t know what they are.” What is clear is that the Russians are far happier with military brinkmanship and pressure than their Western counterparts. Some 14,000 people have been killed in eastern Ukraine since 2014 but unlike the Cold War era there is little in the way of public awareness or concern of events amongst the Western public.
The outgoing head of the UK’s armed forces has said the British military will have to be ready for war with Russia after recent tensions in eastern Europe, but he does not believe Vladimir Putin really wants “hot war” with the west. This dance of preparing for war but not really believing that you opponent wants it and knowing that you don’t want it, makes for an interesting but fairly predictable playbook.
In a sense Russia’s foreign policy has been defined by an approach that it will move as far as its opponents allow it too. In Syria for example Moscow was able to dominate events partly due to the US-led Coalition not backing up its own policy ‘red lines’ with actual resource. The test for President Biden is to demonstrate to President Putin what the US considers to be its red lines on Ukraine. Will he be willing to pause or end the NATO accession in return for calm at the border, or does that accession provide the exact guarantees that would deter future Russian aggression. The centrepiece of brinkmanship is that we don’t know the answer but await instead events to unfold.

BY: James Denselow
Tags
You May Also Like
Popular Posts
Caricature
BENEFIT AGM approves 10%...
- March 27, 2025
BENEFIT, the Kingdom’s innovator and leading company in Fintech and electronic financial transactions service, held its Annual General Meeting (AGM) at the company’s headquarters in the Seef District.
During the meeting, shareholders approved all items listed on the agenda, including the ratification of the minutes of the previous AGM held on 26 March 2024. The session reviewed and approved the Board’s Annual Report on the company’s activities and financial performance for the fiscal year ended 31 December 2024, and the shareholders expressed their satisfaction with the company’s operational and financial results during the reporting period.
The meeting also reviewed the Independent External Auditor’s Report on the company’s consolidated financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2024. Subsequently, the shareholders approved the audited financial statements for the fiscal year. Based on the Board’s recommendation, the shareholders approved the distribution of a cash dividend equivalent to 10% of the paid-up share capital.
Furthermore, the shareholders endorsed the allocation of a total amount of BD 172,500 as remuneration to the members of the Board for the year ended 31 December 2024, subject to prior clearance by related authorities.
The extension of the current composition of the Board was approved, which includes ten members and one CBB observer, for a further six-month term, expiring in September 2025, pending no objection from the CBB.
The meeting reviewed and approved the Corporate Governance Report for 2024, which affirmed the company’s full compliance with the corporate governance directives issued by the CBB and other applicable regulatory frameworks. The AGM absolved the Board Members of liability for any of their actions during the year ending on 31st December 2024, in accordance with the Commercial Companies Law.
In alignment with regulatory requirements, the session approved the reappointment of Ernst & Young (EY) as the company’s External Auditors for the fiscal year 2025, covering both the parent company and its subsidiaries—Sinnad and Bahrain FinTech Bay. The Board was authorised to determine the external auditors’ professional fees, subject to approval from the CBB, and the meeting concluded with a discussion of any additional issues as per Article (207) of the Commercial Companies Law.
Speaking on the company’s performance, Mr. Mohamed Al Bastaki, Chairman BENEFIT , stated: “In terms of the financial results for 2024, I am pleased to say that the year gone by has also been proved to be a success in delivering tangible results. Growth rate for 2024 was 19 per cent. Revenue for the year was BD 17 M (US$ 45.3 Million) and net profit was 2 Million ($ 5.3 Million).
Mr. Al Bastaki also announced that the Board had formally adopted a new three-year strategic roadmap to commence in 2025. The strategy encompasses a phased international expansion, optimisation of internal operations, enhanced revenue diversification, long-term sustainability initiatives, and the advancement of innovation and digital transformation initiatives across all service lines.
“I extend my sincere appreciation to the CBB for its continued support of BENEFIT and its pivotal role in fostering a stable and progressive regulatory environment for the Kingdom’s banking and financial sector—an environment that has significantly reinforced Bahrain’s standing as a leading financial hub in the region,” said Mr. Al Bastaki. “I would also like to thank our partner banks and valued customers for their trust, and our shareholders for their ongoing encouragement. The achievements of 2024 set a strong precedent, and I am confident they will serve as a foundation for yet another successful and impactful year ahead.”
Chief Executive of BENEFIT; Mr. Abdulwahed AlJanahi commented, “The year 2024 represented another pivotal chapter in BENEFIT ’s evolution. We achieved substantial progress in advancing our digital strategy across multiple sectors, while reinforcing our long-term commitment to the development of Bahrain’s financial services and payments landscape. Throughout the year, we remained firmly aligned with our objective of delivering measurable value to our shareholders, strategic partners, and customers. At the same time, we continued to play an active role in enabling Bahrain’s digital economy by introducing innovative solutions and service enhancements that directly address market needs and future opportunities.”
Mr. AlJanahi affirmed that BENEFIT has successfully developed a robust and well-integrated payment network that connects individuals and businesses across Bahrain, accelerating the adoption of emerging technologies in the banking and financial services sector and reinforcing Bahrain’s position as a growing fintech hub, and added, “Our achievements of the past year reflect a long-term vision to establish a resilient electronic payment infrastructure that supports the Kingdom’s digital economy. Key developments in 2024 included the implementation of central authentication for open banking via BENEFIT Pay”
Mr. AlJanahi concluded by thanking the Board for its strategic direction, the company’s staff for their continued dedication, and the Central Bank of Bahrain, member banks, and shareholders for their valuable partnership and confidence in the company’s long-term vision.
opinion
Report
ads
Newsletter
Subscribe to our mailing list to get the new updates!