Concerns and Effects of a Possible U.S. Withdrawal
November 21, 2024, 9:21 am

Concerns and Effects of a Possible U.S. Withdrawal

جومرد حمدوش

The discussion has resurfaced regarding a potential U.S. withdrawal from Syria and Syrian Kurdistan following the victory of Republican candidate Donald Trump in the United States, particularly from areas controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Will Trump activate his decision again? Although the foreign policy of the incoming administration regarding Syria and its military presence there has not yet been announced, concerns are rising among the Kurdish population, while Turkey is clearly eager to exploit any sudden withdrawal.

In this article, I will attempt to outline the possible scenarios from my perspective in the event of a U.S. withdrawal in Syrian Kurdistan, as well as the Russian options and Turkish ambitions, and the readiness of Kurdish parties to deal with different scenarios. Additionally, I will identify the best ways to achieve sustainable stability in the region by reducing dependence on the presence of external powers.

**Concerns About U.S. Withdrawal**

The presence of U.S. forces as part of the international coalition against ISIS is linked to objectives beyond merely eradicating the terrorist group; it is a strategic presence aimed at curbing Iranian influence and impacting the balance of power in the region. The bigger question is what might happen if Washington actually decides to withdraw suddenly. Looking at the previous U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, such an action in Syrian Kurdistan could represent a "catastrophic withdrawal," as described by analyst and foreign policy professor Dr. Gregory Aftandilian, especially since all parties are eager. The Syrian regime desires to regain control over the Kurdish region, Turkey is enthusiastic about Trump’s victory and the possibility of influencing the upcoming U.S. administration's decisions regarding support for the SDF, Russia is working hard to restore the Syrian regime's control over all Syrian geography, and Iran is annoyed by the U.S. presence, as it serves as an obstacle to its expansion and influence through Syria into Lebanon.

Any new military intervention in Syrian Kurdistan could lead to a new wave of Kurdish migration and displacement, repeating the experiences of Afrin, Serekaniye, and Tal Abyad. This means that the fate of Syrian Kurdistan could be put at risk, resulting in a real humanitarian disaster. Given the current regional tensions, including the war in Gaza and Lebanon and tensions between Iran and Israel, the possibility of a U.S. withdrawal remains fraught with danger, as it also heightens Israeli fears of increasing Iranian influence if such a withdrawal occurs. Additionally, the situation in Syria has become an open playground for regional and international power struggles, including the U.S., Russia, Israel, Iran, and Turkey, as well as between Turkey and the SDF.

Thus, the topic of withdrawal remains a viable option, although it is a ticking time bomb. We vividly remember the effects of Trump's decisions regarding the withdrawal of U.S. soldiers from Syria after Turkey announced its intention to launch a new military operation in Syrian Kurdistan, which it labeled “Operation Peace Spring,” during which it occupied the cities of Serekaniye and Tal Abyad in 2019.

**The Russian Position and Handling the Situation in Syrian Kurdistan**

Russia has played a key role in the Syrian file since its military intervention to support the Syrian regime in 2015, and it is seeking to restore complete control of the Syrian regime over the entire country, including areas controlled by the SDF. From this standpoint, Russia may exploit a U.S. withdrawal as a strategic opportunity to enhance its influence and reshape the military and political balance in the region. It may allow Ankara to expand its influence in certain areas of Syrian Kurdistan in exchange for Turkish concessions on other files, such as limiting support for the opposition in Idlib. Russia could serve as a mediator between Ankara and the SDF, promoting the possibility of political and security settlements that provide guarantees for Turkey, such as new agreements concerning the withdrawal or distancing of the SDF from the border, as occurred during the battles of "Operation Peace Spring," with imposing Syrian regime security control over the border areas. Conversely, Russia might encourage Ankara to normalize relations with the Syrian regime through mediation initiatives, aiming to achieve a balance that ensures Syrian control over the land while granting Turkey a safe space that curbs Kurdish influence in the border areas. We should not forget the recent statements from the Turkish president when he mentioned that a security belt depth of 30-40 kilometers along its southern border with Syrian Kurdistan is a fixed demand.

**Turkey and the Possibilities of Exploiting the Security Vacuum**

Turkey is one of the biggest beneficiaries of any potential U.S. withdrawal, which would enable it to expand its areas of influence under the pretext of combating terrorism, which it has been pursuing repeatedly. Turkey has transformed the areas it occupies into hotspots for harboring terrorists and mercenaries, regions lacking security and witnessing daily human rights violations and crimes that rise to the level of crimes against humanity. Recent statements by the Turkish Ministry of Defense confirm Ankara's readiness for any U.S. withdrawal from the region, emphasizing Turkey's eagerness.

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BENEFIT, the Kingdom’s innovator and leading company in Fintech and electronic financial transactions service, held its Annual General Meeting (AGM) at the company’s headquarters in the Seef District.
During the meeting, shareholders approved all items listed on the agenda, including the ratification of the minutes of the previous AGM held on 26 March 2024. The session reviewed and approved the Board’s Annual Report on the company’s activities and financial performance for the fiscal year ended 31 December 2024, and the shareholders expressed their satisfaction with the company’s operational and financial results during the reporting period.
The meeting also reviewed the Independent External Auditor’s Report on the company’s consolidated financial statements for the year ended 31 December 2024. Subsequently, the shareholders approved the audited financial statements for the fiscal year. Based on the Board’s recommendation, the shareholders approved the distribution of a cash dividend equivalent to 10% of the paid-up share capital.
Furthermore, the shareholders endorsed the allocation of a total amount of BD 172,500 as remuneration to the members of the Board for the year ended 31 December 2024, subject to prior clearance by related authorities.
The extension of the current composition of the Board was approved, which includes ten members and one CBB observer, for a further six-month term, expiring in September 2025, pending no objection from the CBB.
The meeting reviewed and approved the Corporate Governance Report for 2024, which affirmed the company’s full compliance with the corporate governance directives issued by the CBB and other applicable regulatory frameworks. The AGM absolved the Board Members of liability for any of their actions during the year ending on 31st December 2024, in accordance with the Commercial Companies Law.
In alignment with regulatory requirements, the session approved the reappointment of Ernst & Young (EY) as the company’s External Auditors for the fiscal year 2025, covering both the parent company and its subsidiaries—Sinnad and Bahrain FinTech Bay. The Board was authorised to determine the external auditors’ professional fees, subject to approval from the CBB, and the meeting concluded with a discussion of any additional issues as per Article (207) of the Commercial Companies Law.
Speaking on the company’s performance, Mr. Mohamed Al Bastaki, Chairman BENEFIT , stated: “In terms of the financial results for 2024, I am pleased to say that the year gone by has also been proved to be a success in delivering tangible results. Growth rate for 2024 was 19 per cent. Revenue for the year was BD 17 M (US$ 45.3 Million) and net profit was 2 Million ($ 5.3 Million).

Mr. Al Bastaki also announced that the Board had formally adopted a new three-year strategic roadmap to commence in 2025. The strategy encompasses a phased international expansion, optimisation of internal operations, enhanced revenue diversification, long-term sustainability initiatives, and the advancement of innovation and digital transformation initiatives across all service lines.
“I extend my sincere appreciation to the CBB for its continued support of BENEFIT and its pivotal role in fostering a stable and progressive regulatory environment for the Kingdom’s banking and financial sector—an environment that has significantly reinforced Bahrain’s standing as a leading financial hub in the region,” said Mr. Al Bastaki. “I would also like to thank our partner banks and valued customers for their trust, and our shareholders for their ongoing encouragement. The achievements of 2024 set a strong precedent, and I am confident they will serve as a foundation for yet another successful and impactful year ahead.”
Chief Executive of BENEFIT; Mr. Abdulwahed AlJanahi commented, “The year 2024 represented another pivotal chapter in BENEFIT ’s evolution. We achieved substantial progress in advancing our digital strategy across multiple sectors, while reinforcing our long-term commitment to the development of Bahrain’s financial services and payments landscape. Throughout the year, we remained firmly aligned with our objective of delivering measurable value to our shareholders, strategic partners, and customers. At the same time, we continued to play an active role in enabling Bahrain’s digital economy by introducing innovative solutions and service enhancements that directly address market needs and future opportunities.”
Mr. AlJanahi affirmed that BENEFIT has successfully developed a robust and well-integrated payment network that connects individuals and businesses across Bahrain, accelerating the adoption of emerging technologies in the banking and financial services sector and reinforcing Bahrain’s position as a growing fintech hub, and added, “Our achievements of the past year reflect a long-term vision to establish a resilient electronic payment infrastructure that supports the Kingdom’s digital economy. Key developments in 2024 included the implementation of central authentication for open banking via BENEFIT Pay”
Mr. AlJanahi concluded by thanking the Board for its strategic direction, the company’s staff for their continued dedication, and the Central Bank of Bahrain, member banks, and shareholders for their valuable partnership and confidence in the company’s long-term vision.