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WTO cuts global trade growth forecast on rising tensions

The World Trade Organization (WTO) slashed its growth forecast for global trade this year by more than half on Tuesday, citing heightened uncertainty due to trade tensions and a slowing global economy.
The WTO now expects global merchandise trade volumes to grow by 1.2 percent in 2019, versus its earlier estimate of 2.6 percent in April.
For 2020, growth is seen to be 2.7 percent, down from an earlier forecast of 3.0 percent. The organization in 2018 had forecast growth at 3.0 percent.
“The darkening outlook for trade is discouraging but not unexpected. Beyond their direct effects, trade conflicts heighten uncertainty, which is leading some businesses to delay the productivity-enhancing investments that are essential to raising living standards,” WTO Director-General Roberto Azevedo said in a statement.
Azevedo added that job creation could also be impacted as global firms may be forced to employ fewer workers needed to produce goods and services for exports.
The WTO’s lowered forecast reflects slower global economic growth due to Brexit-related uncertainty in the European Union, shifting monetary policy stance in developed economies, and rising trade tensions.
The Geneva-based organization also gave an estimated growth rate of 0.5 percent to 1.6 percent for world trade growth this year.
“Trade growth could fall below this range if trade tensions continue to build, or outperform it if they start to recede. The range of likely values is wider for 2020, ranging from 1.7 percent to 3.7 percent, with better outcomes depending on an easing of trade tensions,” the WTO said.
“Further rounds of tariffs and retaliation could produce a destructive cycle of recrimination,” the organization added.
Meanwhile, the WTO added that North America recorded the fastest import growth of any single region at 1.8 percent, followed by Europe at 0.2 percent.
The two regions that witnessed declines included South America, down 0.7 percent, and Asia, lower by 0.4 percent.
“Collectively, the imports of other regions grew faster than those of North America, at 2.4 percent. Import demand has been particularly weak in Asia, weighing heavily on exporters of manufactured goods (e.g. Japan, Korea, and Germany),” the statement said.
The US and China have been caught in a 15-month trade war, with both nations imposing tariffs on hundreds of billions of dollars of each other’s goods.
The escalating trade dispute between the world’s two largest economies has also taken a toll on global stock prices and threatened global economic growth.
China’s top trade negotiator, however, is expected to lead an upcoming 13th round of talks sometime this month with hopes to resolve the trade war with the US, according to a report from the Associated Press.
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BENEFIT, the Kingdom’s innovator and leading company in Fintech and electronic financial transactions service, has sponsored the BuildHer CityHack 2025 Hackathon, a two-day event spearheaded by the College of Engineering and Technology at the Royal University for Women (RUW).
Aimed at secondary school students, the event brought together a distinguished group of academic professionals and technology experts to mentor and inspire young participants.
More than 100 high school students from across the Kingdom of Bahrain took part in the hackathon, which featured an intensive programme of training workshops and hands-on sessions. These activities were tailored to enhance participants’ critical thinking, collaborative problem-solving, and team-building capabilities, while also encouraging the development of practical and sustainable solutions to contemporary challenges using modern technological tools.
BENEFIT’s Chief Executive Mr. Abdulwahed AlJanahi, commented: “Our support for this educational hackathon reflects our long-term strategic vision to nurture the talents of emerging national youth and empower the next generation of accomplished female leaders in technology. By fostering creativity and innovation, we aim to contribute meaningfully to Bahrain’s comprehensive development goals and align with the aspirations outlined in the Kingdom’s Vision 2030—an ambition in which BENEFIT plays a central role.”
Professor Riyadh Yousif Hamzah, President of the Royal University for Women, commented: “This initiative reflects our commitment to advancing women in STEM fields. We're cultivating a generation of creative, solution-driven female leaders who will drive national development. Our partnership with BENEFIT exemplifies the powerful synergy between academia and private sector in supporting educational innovation.”
Hanan Abdulla Hasan, Senior Manager, PR & Communication at BENEFIT, said: “We are honoured to collaborate with RUW in supporting this remarkable technology-focused event. It highlights our commitment to social responsibility, and our ongoing efforts to enhance the digital and innovation capabilities of young Bahraini women and foster their ability to harness technological tools in the service of a smarter, more sustainable future.”
For his part, Dr. Humam ElAgha, Acting Dean of the College of Engineering and Technology at the University, said: “BuildHer CityHack 2025 embodies our hands-on approach to education. By tackling real-world problems through creative thinking and sustainable solutions, we're preparing women to thrive in the knowledge economy – a cornerstone of the University's vision.”
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