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Will Erdogan retreat on the S-400 missile deal?
In his first confirmation hearing in Washington on January 19, the new American Secretary of State Antony Blinken clearly announced that the Turkey’s S-400 deal with Russia was “unacceptable”. Blinken also has emphasised the significance of the US sanctions to be implemented and said, “co-called strategic partner of ours would be in line with one of our biggest strategic competitors in Russia”.
Arguably, Biden’s administration “warning” which has been officially stated by the US Secretary of State, might follow further sanctions against Turkey which is still acting as not an American ally neither a NATO member. However, the Turkey’s official controversial reaction and response was first expressed by Erdogan’s spokesman Ibrahim Kalin whose expected Biden’s administration to open a new page regarding US-Turkey’s relationship and he said that “they want to develop good relations and to turn the page”. Whereas, the Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu has declared in one of his speech that “Turkey will never retreat on its S-400 deal with Russia”.
Beside that, the rise of Erdogan’s concern has become a fact after Joe Biden’s appointment of Bret McGurk to be the American Middle East representative in the National Security Council. Moreover, for Turkey, McGurk considers as one of the most pro-Kurdish US official and he has built durable relationship with the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Recently, Erdogan’s “Phobia” towards Kurds went so far that it even took form of bizarre theory. The former (AKP) deputy member, Orhan Miroglu, has a speech from twitter that the US President Joe Biden is Kurdish!
Despite US and other NATO’s allies’ warnings, Erdogan insisted to challenge the NATO’s principles and signed the S-400 missile deal with Putin that is worth 2.5 billion dollars. He repeatedly declared that Turkey will not take a step back, even when the US cut a financial and manufacturing partner from the F-35 program and conducted a sanction as well. Consequently, under Biden’s administration turning on the page with Ankara will definitely be dictated by US and only Erdogan have to adhere their terms.
In terms of Moscow’s position regarding the S-400 deal that has served Russian interests, the reconsideration or retreat from Erdogan’s side could have serious outcomes. Furthermore, Erdogan doesn’t have more options as he is aware that without Russian support, he would never invade and intervene other territories such as Syria, Libya, the South Caucasus and other Mediterranean countries like Greece and Cyprus. As a result, Erdogan with his populist rhetoric went into the path of “no return” and he might have to face tough and catastrophic consequences if he decided to withdraw neither to retreat the S-400 deal with Putin.
Zara Saleh
