For more than six years, Erdogan has been wreaking havoc in the Middle East and North Africa (MENA). Turkey has been using Islamist terrorist organizations and non-state actors, which Turkey and Qatar co-sponsor, to threaten the well-being of the national states in the region, with the purpose to build an Islamic Caliphate system and recapture the legacies of the historical Ottoman occupation of MENA. The mercenaries positioned by Erdogan on the ground in Syria, Iraq, and Libya are commanded by the Turkish military.

Why the international community is turning a deaf ear to Erdogan’s atrocities in the Middle East and North Africa is not the interesting question, any more. The real question is why the secular Turkish military is obeying the Islamist Erdogan in his quest for establishing an Islamic Caliphate over the ruins of secular national states in the region. One of the ideologies, dearly embraced by the Turkish military, is being “guardians of secularism” and “defenders of Kemalism.” The former Turkish President, Süleyman Demirel, once said: “in Turkey, God first created the military. Then he realized his mistake, and created the Turkish people as an afterthought.” Why did the Turkish military lose its status and pride to a Muslim Brotherhood president?

The Turkish military is sacrificing its best soldiers and equipment to accomplish Erdogan’s Islamist agenda, not only abroad, but also inside Turkey. In early July, the Turkish Minister of Defense visited Al-Watiya in Libya and ordered the building of an airbase there. A few days later, airstrikes by the Libyan National Army and, allegedly, its regional allies targeted the Turkish airbase, leaving three radars completely destroyed and six Turkish military personnel killed, including a reputable field commander. Other two Turkish officers were killed during a former Turkish military assault on Libya, in February.

Some observers argue that the failed coup attempt against Erdogan, in 2016, and the consequent purging of top military leaders has weakened the military joints and disintegrated its structure. This forced the current military leaders, led by Erdogan loyalists, to crumble under Erdogan’s wings. This argument was enhanced by a report, conducted by European Union’s Intelligence and Situation Center (INTCEN), and leaked by the British The Time magazine in 2017. The report finds that Erdogan had planned the purge of Kemalist and secular military officers, long before the 2016 coup attempt. The report argues that the coup attempt was meant to pre-empt the pre-planned purge. In other words, the purge was not a vengeful consequence of the failed coup, but a motivator for the coup attempt.

However, the history and belief system of the Turkish military tells us that the current submission to the Islamist regime of Erdogan is voluntary and won’t last long. The ongoing bleeding of military personnel and equipment in quest for Erdogan’s illegal ambitions in the Middle East has already exhausted the military and stirred resentment among officers and commanders of all ranks. In January 2020, RAND Corporation, an American think tank, published a report titled “Turkey’s National Course: Implications for the US-Turkish Strategic Partnership and the US Army.” The report argued that there is a strong discontent against Erdogan inside the Turkish military, that may lead to another coup attempt in the future.

Nevertheless, the strong grip imposed by Erdogan over state institutions, including the military, after the failed coup in 2016, is not the only reason why the Turkish military is not willing to challenge Erdogan through a coup d’état. Actually, it can hardly be a logical reason to justify military’s obedience to Erdogan. If the military leaders are willing to challenge or plan a coup against Erdogan, it would not have tolerated its dominance over decision-making in the most powerful institution for so long. In fact, the Turkish military is not forced to obey Erdogan; it is voluntarily following Erdogan’s orders to maintain its own legitimacy and preserve its image inside Turkey and in the eyes of the international community.

The Turkish people have strong negative feelings towards military coups for their constant occurrence during the Ottoman era. The secular pro-democracy political opposition won’t endorse the military to launch a coup against Erdogan, or call upon the military to rid them of Erdogan. It is not possible due to the public consciousness of the citizens and how they perceive the role of the military within the state. Should the military launched a successful coup, the political aftermath will be too overwhelming for the military to handle. This will expose Turkey to huge security risks, given its lengthy incubation of Islamic State (ISIS) terrorists inside Turkey and in northern Syria.  

Another dimension has to do with the international standing and foreign relationships of the Turkish military with important allies. The current Minister of Defense, Hulusi Akar, though being an Erdogan loyalist, is highly respected and often contacted by the United States military on issues related to Turkey and Turkish operations in the Middle East. The Turkish military is the second largest standing military force in NATO, after the United States Armed Forces. The civilian control of armed forces is a doctrine highly respected and strictly applied by NATO member states, including the United States of America. Out of commitment to this principle, the secular Turkish military is voluntarily obeying the Muslim Brotherhood’s Erdogan in pursuing his Islamist agenda, even if they disagree with it.

It is pretty unlikely that the Turkish military is going to orchestrate another coup attempt against Erdogan or stop implementing his illegal destructive assaults on MENA countries. However, the collapsing economy and the long record of political failures of Erdogan and his AKP, over the past few years, portends that his end in power is approaching. If a popular revolution against Erdogan does not erupt in the next months, the Turkish people will vote him out in 2023 elections. Erdogan’s end is much closer than we think and it does not need a coup d’état to happen.

by : Dalia Ziada