Predicting future geopolitics has become the new norm barely three weeks since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine shocked the world - despite the accumulating evidence that was what Vladimir Putin intended from the start. Chief among these is the effect on China and its global aspirations, especially with regard to Taiwan.

 Specifically, attention has focused on Beijing’s long-standing ambition to conquer and annex Taiwan to the People’s Republic of China. There are of course big differences between Ukraine and Taiwan but there are also important similarities. Xi Jinping denies that Taipei is entitled to any territorial or political sovereignty.

 Putin viewed Ukraine’s growing democracy and ties with Europe as a threat to his regime. Beijing also fears a robustly democratic Taiwan that is bolstering relations with the US and its allies. And both Russia and China can deploy powerful militaries, particularly compared with their current and potential targets’ forces.

 There end the similarities.

 For Xi Jinping, Putin’s widely-condemned Ukrainian operation is clearly a nightmare. The images of Putin’s participation in the opening of the Winter Olympic Games as a guest of the Chinese president are still fresh in the eyes of the international community. Many people wonder whether Xi actually gave the go-ahead to Russia or whether Putin is merely suggesting he has Beijing’s backing even if this is not actually the case.

 Whether or not he had prior knowledge of Putin’s plans, two things are almost certain: Xi Jinping doubtless expected Russia’s battle-hardened military to quickly defeat the Ukrainians, and that the international community’s response would be muted.

 Neither of these scenarios has happened: Ukraine’s armed forces have been impressively resilient in fighting the Russian invaders while the US, Europe and Asia – including Japan and Singapore - have been surprisingly tough and more or less united in coordinating sanctions against the Kremlin. Putin has managed to bolster the EU and reinvigorate NATO. The response has been a package of extraordinary measures -  including a dramatic shift on German defence spending - in the hope of averting the largest European conflict in decades.

 The parallels are clear: a fortnight into Putin’s action against his neighbours, Chinese fighters penetrated Taiwan’s airspace just after Taiwanese President Tsai Ing-wen expressed her support for Ukraine and other Taiwanese politicians sought to draw a parallel between Russia’s dispute with Ukraine and China’s with Taiwan.

Beijing, a permanent member of the UN Security Council (along with the US, UK, France and Russia) abstained when the council voted to condemn Russia on February 25, a day after the invasion began. But it also offered to mediate between Moscow and Kyiv shortly afterwards.

 Since the war began, Beijing has tried to position itself further away from Russia than seemed the case after Xi and Putin met. But China’s Foreign Ministry has refused to call the attack on Ukraine an “invasion” and maintained that negotiations are needed for resolution.

 On Monday 7 March, on the 12th day of Moscow’s aggression against Kyiv, China’s Foreign Minister Wang Yi called Russia Beijing’s “most important strategic partner” amid its continued refusal to condemn the invasion of Ukraine, adding that friendship between the two peoples is “iron clad”.

 Nevertheless, China and Russia currently enjoy the best relations they have had since the late 1950s. Although they have no formal alliance, the two countries do have an informal agreement to coordinate diplomatic and economic moves, and build up an alliance against the US.

 But experts have speculated that too much importance has been attached to the friendship between Beijing and Moscow, especially economically. It is true that economic relations between both countries have intensified in recent years. But the Russian economy is worth just one-tenth of China’s and is not amongst its top trading partners.

 As a result, the value of trade relations is high, especially in the energy sector, but not so high as to call into question relations with the rest of the world. Russia has been increasingly isolated by the international community – for example the Danish shipping company Maersk has suspended the shipments to and from Russia.

 Beijing is unwilling to follow the same path, given the 20% increase in its trade with the rest of the world in 2021. China is thus very concerned about the economic implications of the Ukraine war, because in case of isolation Russia alone could not constitute an alternative market and because it fears that in the long run its concerns about financial and technological "decoupling" may come true.

 “Under current international circumstances, China can only proceed by safeguarding its own best interests, choosing the lesser of two evils, and unloading the burden of Russia as soon as possible,” wrote the international affairs analyst, Hu Wei, the chairman of Shanghai Public Policy Research Association. “At present, it is estimated that there is still a window period of one or two weeks before China loses its wiggle room. China must act decisively.”

 Putin’s senseless assault on Ukraine is mainly negative. But it could – fingers crossed!- have a more positive impact in remaking a new and more equitable world order, especially with regard to China’s regional and global ambitions.

 

BY: IAN BLACK