Eyes across the Middle East are focused on Joe Biden, having finally defeated Donald Trump in the race for the White House in one of the most fateful and divisive presidential elections in modern times – not only for America, but the wider world.

 Israelis and Palestinians, Iranians and Saudis, Yemenis, Egyptians and Iraqis are keen, not to say anxious, to see what a Democrat in the Oval Office will mean for their own conflicts, rivalries and ambitions after four years of disruptive and self-serving policies from the leader who vowed to Make America Great Again but succeeded only in sullying its global reputation.

 Many regional leaders benefitted from Trump’s transactional approach, and they will be worrying and speculating about what Biden’s victory will mean for them and their interests. “My favourite dictator!”, Trump famously tweeted in support of Egyptian President Abdel-Fatah al-Sisi, who saw the Republican as a powerful supporter.

 Biden’s potential for the greatest regional change is with regard to the 2015 nuclear agreement with Iran (JCPoA) – which Trump abandoned with scorn as “the worst deal ever” because it had been struck by his predecessor Barack Obama. Biden has been sending positive messages to Tehran during the election campaign, blaming Trump’s re-imposition of US sanctions for Iran’s breaches of the agreement. He has vowed to rejoin the JCPoA if Iran returns to full compliance and use the impetus for wider talks on missiles and regional cooperation.

 Success, however, is far from guaranteed for the 46^th president. Ayatollah Khamenei has insisted the outcome of the US election would have no impact on Iranian policy. And a presidential election is also due by mid-2021 in Iran in which hardliners are likely to replace Hassan Rouhani.

 Biden’s past positions in general also indicate a cooler approach to Turkey, Israel and Saudi Arabia. He pledged in a much-scrutinised article in Foreign Policy https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/united-states/2020-01-23/why-america-must-lead-again?utm_medium=promo_email&utm_source=special_send&utm_campaign=election_registrant&utm_content=20201107&utm_term=registrant-prerelease to “end forever wars, which have cost the United States untold blood and treasure” and remove US troops from Afghanistan, fuelling the sense that he will follow both Obama and Trump in withdrawing from the Middle East or at least lower the level of US engagement.

 Arab governments fear that he may apply pressure for democratisation as Obama did at the height of the Arab spring in 2011 and 2012, in particular by backing the downfall of Egypt’s Hosni Mubarak and his eventual replacement by the Muslim Brotherhood’s Mohammed Morsi. The subsequent rise of Isis in Iraq and Syria limited America’s freedom of manoeuvre. Obama also failed to intervene against Bashar al-Assad when he crossed the White House’s “red line” by using chemical weapons.

 Biden is highly experienced and fairly realistic about the limits of US power and is likely to try to “weaponize” human rights but at the same time not to abandon Washington’s regional influence at a time of unprecedented challenges – not least the covid pandemic, the inexorable rise of China and global warming.

 Any US return to the JCPoA will likely trigger a confrontation both with Israel and perhaps also the Saudis, who are alarmed by the potential for US pressure to end the war in Yemen and Biden’s pledge to “reassess” relations with the kingdom. (It is hard to imagine President Biden making his first foreign visit to Riyadh, as Trump did in May 2017.)

 Israel’s Binyamin Netanyahu was able to both influence Trump’s hostility to Tehran, which peaked with the assassination of the Quds force IRGC commander Qassem Soleimani. Netanyahu has arguably benefited more than any other leader from Trump’s leadership: the transfer of the US embassy to Jerusalem and its recognition as Israel’s capital – despite the international consensus that the holy city is a “final status” issue.

 Pressure on the Palestinians from Trump’s “deal of the century”, the threat of unilateral annexation of parts of the West Bank and the Abraham Accords between Israel, the UAE and Bahrain – and most recently normalisation with Sudan – are all rewards to the most right-wing Israeli government ever.

 Palestinians, who have been repeatedly marginalized, will be understandably relieved that the Twitterer-in-Chief has been defeated. They do expect Biden to re-engage with some kind of peace process, but they cannot be certain at all that he will prioritize their interests, let alone deliver, any more than Obama was able to. The Democrat has already clarified that he will not undo Trump’s recognition of Jerusalem.

 Biden’s vice-president-elect, Kamala Harris – the first woman, and also woman of colour – ever to hold this post, has spoken of restoring Washington’s relations with “Palestine” and pledged “to ensure that Palestinians and Israelis enjoy equal measures of freedom, security, prosperity and democracy.”  Quite how President Biden will achieve that laudable goal – along with a two-state solution – remains to be seen. By themselves, the sighs of relief that are accompanying Trump’s defeat, and even the restoration of damaged American prestige will not solve that conundrum. Biden, after all, will be inheriting a very different world – and a different Middle East - than his predecessor did just four years ago.

IAN BLACK