Since 2003, NATO has been trying to consolidate its ties with the Iraqi state. While Iraq was addressing the threat of Da’ish in 2014, NATO offered its readiness to give help in case the Iraqi side formally asked for it. As a part of a mutual program between them, NATO had sent in 2011 a delegation to train and rehabilitate the Iraqi forces. In 2017, NATO asserted its strategic alliance with Iraq in the fight against Da’ish, the organization endangering the international community. NATO’s existence in Iraq

NATO promises that its presence in Iraq will mean that there is a strong Iraqi army. It alleges that this will make Iraq more secure and the Middle East more stable. Therefore, it’s advisors have begun their works with the Iraqi authorities to reform the Iraqi military and security institutions.

NATO’ surge in Iraq

a couple of months ago, the US president, Donald Trump, demanded NATO to reinforce its troops in Iraq. He wanted to minimize the burden on the American side in this context. Here, it is worth noting that NATO’s delegation in Iraq includes 500 members and has started its work since 2018.

There is still a lack of clarity in Iraq’s vision towards NATO. Iraqis are divided as some of them want this organization to stay. This coincides with the reappear of Da’ish.

Some media sources have stated that moderate Shiite politicians might be less aggressive towards NATO. They affirm that it did not give orders to assassinate Qasim Sulaimani and Abu Mahdi al-Muhandis near Baghdad airport. They also state that the US is not the only party in this organization. In return, many other NATO members – Germany, France, and the UK- might be more welcomed in Iraq. Hence, NATO might be permitted to stay without any direct American participation. As it seems, this will be one of the Iraqi conditions to deal with NATO.

For cooperation with NATO, stipulations have been established by some Iraqi parties. They have announced that it must not have any forces on the ground, nor must it use Iraq’s airspace. Moreover, they have insisted on the protection of Iraqi sovereignty. By this, they would prevent regional powers – Iran, Turkey, and Saudi Arabia- from breaching this principle. These politicians are planning for restoring Iraq’s role in international affairs. Thus, NATO’s future in Iraq will be one of the files to be discussed in the next Iraqi-American dialogue scheduled for the coming weeks.

Iran also has its word in this scene. In 2018, when NATO demonstrated its desire to establish a permanent military base in Iraq, it rejected that agenda and repeated it would not let NATO have a formal presence near its border. Iran believes that NATO is plotting to target its geopolitical influence in this region. Thus, its leaders have reiterated that they will never tolerate this event. NATO’s existence in Iraq

PMFs and NATO

The relations between popular mobilization forces (PMF) and NATO are not stable. Many Shiite factions have declared their refusal for the presence of foreign troops, including NATO. They exposed that if any external power does not respect this request, it would be dealt with as an enemy violating Iraqi sovereignty. Therefore, they have many times threatened to target any foreign power if it does not leave the country.

Many signs prove that we might see an escalation in the discourse of the PMFs against NATO. They consider the presence of NATO in Iraq as an umbrella for the American troops. They also think that if NATO remains operating on the Iraqi land, this will be a reflection of the American aspirations. Consequently, they refuse the notion stating NATO’s presence is welcomed in this country.

Nowadays, many important leaders in the PMFs are hinting that NATO considers them a military force acting outside the authority of the Iraqi state. They suppose it is a clear message consistent with the American attempts to demonize the Shiite fighters. Hence, it is expected that they will mobilize their followers to classify NATO as a hostile force that has no right to stay on the Iraqi soil. This will hinder their mutual relations and put Baghdad in an embarrassing situation.

The PMFs claim that NATO has started to interfere in Iraqi political affairs. Some months ago, NATO criticized the ways on which PMFs relied to deal with protest movement engulfing the country, describing those means an absolute tragedy. Thus, NATO called the government to restrain those atrocities, stressing it had no relations with those groups. In return, NATO demanded Baghdad to give more tasks to the Iraqi military institution to curb that violence. Shiite leaders said that NATO was preparing a conspiracy to topple their strategic place in the Iraqi scene.

In conclusion, all these variables will affect the relations between Iraq and NATO. Forces opposing NATO’s role in Iraq will remain effective. Furthermore, geopolitics will also overshadow this subject and might make it more difficult. This means that this relation will be organized under special conditions agreeing with the ambitions of these players. Otherwise, NATO will not be able to stay safe in Iraq. NATO’s existence in Iraq

Diyari Salih is an Iraqi academic working at al-Mustansiriyah university. He holds a Ph.D. in Political Geography from the University of Baghdad and a Post-Doctorate in International Relations from the University of Warsaw. His research focuses on geopolitical issues in Iraq. He tweets at @DiyariFaily 

By: Diyari Salih