Weaponising Coronavirus

The origins of the pandemic remain contested and increasingly politicised. President Trump, now governing a country that has lost more lives than the entire Vietnam War, has doubled down on accusing China of manufacturing the virus. The presence of not one but two laboratories in Wuhan that were researching Coronaviruses has made it easier to propagate a theory that this didn’t come from bat to man but rather from man to man.

Viewing the virus as a weapon rather than a global calamity gives a very different perspective on both how it has spread so far and how it could spread in future. Indeed, the USA, despite its massive military might and defence spending, has been hit hardest. If you could design a virus that would cause particular chaos in America it would be one that has potentially 20% of infected people showing no symptoms, one that doesn’t show itself for some two weeks and one that has higher rates of mortality for those suffering from obesity.

Analysis from those watching the ‘chatter’ on forums used by terrorist groups initially showed talk of targeting hospitals and health infrastructure in Western States. However, more commonly the lockdowns that have forced billions to stay at home have seen spikes in attempt to recruit supporters online as people spend more time on the internet. Could other attempts to directly of indirectly weaponise the virus be next?

Already we have seen how strategic policy has inadvertently spread the virus. BBC Arabic reported this week that an Iranian airline with links to the country’s Revolutionary Guard has been responsible for the first infections in Lebanon and Iraq. It would appear that Iran’s shadowy pursuit of its interests in the region has had a nefarious blowback for its allies, but what if groups made more proactive choices to spread the virus?

The US has already made clear that anyone who purposefully spreads the virus will face charges under the country’s terrorism laws. There have already been a handful of high profile cases along these lines. In March a man in New Jersey coughed on a supermarket worker who’d asked him to stand further away before telling her he had coronavirus; he was subsequently charged with making a ‘terroristic threat’ and faces up to seven years in jail. Another American spat at a policeman whilst being arrested and was charged with perpetrating a ‘biological weapons hoax’ after claiming to have coronavirus. Similarly in the UK in April a man was jailed for 16 weeks after coughing on police and shouting that he was a ‘super spreader’.

If terrorist groups seek to sow fear and unleash chaos in the countries of their enemies exploiting the vulnerabilities exposed by the coronavirus are obvious. Aviation experts have flagged concern that mandatory face masks may make tracking terrorists on flights harder, whilst there a spike in ISIS attacks in Syria and Iraq has been linked to the security forces in both countries being overwhelmed by a focus on responding to the virus. Indeed whilst crime levels across the world have plummeted there have still been numerous terrorist attacks since the pandemic begun, with Afghanistan in particular witnessing several large scale bombings.

There is the challenge for any terrorist group to protect their own members from the virus whilst being able to use it to conduct attacks on their enemies, however some of the scenarios that are worth preparing for could see asymptomatic carriers target elderly peoples homes or medical facilities currently caring for non-COVID cases. ISIS put out communications claiming the virus was a punishment for ‘Crusader nations’ whilst simultaneously warning that its own followers could catch it. The Taliban put out public health messages and images of its own health teams working to distribute soap and other equipment in response to the outbreak.

In summary it appears a complex confluence of factors has and will determine how trends in global terrorism will be impacted by the pandemic. The world is now facing a threat far greater than any terrorist organisation has managed to muster and a different risk perspective will influence public policy in the years ahead. However, the ability to recruit more followers online and exploit distracted and overburdened security forces may see spikes in attacks or even more spectacular attacks in the short term. In the long term the critical question is how a narrative surrounding a global pandemic can be channeled into a sense of purpose and legitimacy by existing or perhaps more worryingly, new groups.

by: James Danselow