It is too soon to be sure about the long-term consequences of Vladimir Putin’s senseless and widely-condemned invasion of Ukraine, but it is only going to be a matter of time to understand the effect on the world, and particularly the Middle East and North Africa (MENA).

 Take the first days of the conflict, with the United Arab Emirates ambassador to the United Nations abstaining when the rest of the Security Council (except China) voted to protest against Russia intervening militarily against its neighbour. Security, trade and oil ties make it hard for MENA states like the UAE and Saudi Arabia to openly condemn the Russian assault. They naturally prioritize their own interests in a rapidly changing world.

 The UAE is chairing the UN Security Council during March, after having joined as one of its rotating 10 non-permanent members in January. The five permanent members are the UK, China, France, the US and Russia. On February 25, a day after Putin’s invasion began, the UNSC voted on a resolution to condemn it. Eleven of 15 countries agreed on the condemnation. Russia naturally voted against it and three other members abstained: China, India and the UAE.

 The UAE felt that the US, with whom they cooperate closely on security, had not taken the recent Houthi drone and missile attacks on Abu Dhabi sufficiently seriously. As a result, the UAE wanted a different Security Council resolution, on the Houthis, to go their way. Russia voted in favour of that resolution, so Abu Dhabi returned the favour to Moscow. But only for a short time: in the less consequential UN General Assembly last Wednesday, the UAE did condemn Russia.

 According to international relations experts, the Emirati stance on the most serious crisis raging in Europe since the Cold War underlines a shift, and an attempt to balance relations, in a new world order – one where Moscow and Beijing are equally important for the Gulf state.

 Lebanon and Kuwait, two countries that have been invaded by their neighbours in the recent past, staked out a different public position than the rest of MENA.  Other Arab states (like Egypt, Algeria, Morocco, and Tunisia) that rely on wheat imports from both Russia and Ukraine, see a neutral position in the conflict as the best way of minimizing the impact on their food security.

 On 25 February 141 out of 193 UN member states voted to support the motion. Another 35 nations abstained. Only five voted against the resolution. One of those was Syria. Russia is a close ally of President Bashar al-Assad and Putin tipped the balance of Syria’s civil war in his favour when it entered that conflict in 2015.

 Assad praised Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, denouncing what he called Western “hysteria” surrounding it. He told Putin, the day after it began, that the invasion was a “correction of history and restoration of balance which was lost in the world after the breakup of the Soviet Union”. Iran and Iraq were among 35 official abstentions from the UN vote. Morocco did not vote at all.

 Barack Obama had a strong influence in weakening America’s traditional allies in the MENA region. Donald Trump did a lot of damage too, and Joe Biden has been paying the price, made worse by the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan last summer. Part of this grim story is the downgrading of America’s global reputation.

 That is why several Middle Eastern powers want to avoid taking sides in what they view (largely privately rather than publicly) as a conflict between the US, NATO, the EU and Russia, allowing them to hedge their bets and remain on the sidelines. Another factor is the stark difference between Europe’s welcoming of Ukrainian refugees compared to Syrians fleeing their country’s war.

 Russia’s control over Syria is another factor. Israeli, Turkish and Jordanian relations with Moscow are all influenced by that key role in propping up – and maintaining their influence on – Damascus.

 Tehran is also using the Ukrainian diversion to bolster its position in Syria by increasing its support for the Assad regime. The heads of the secret services in Iran and Syria met to discuss cooperation between the two bodies. During a visit to Tehran, Syria’s top intelligence official, Ali Mamlouk, head of the National Security Bureau, met with Iran’s Supreme National Security Council Secretary, Ali Shamkhani, and discussed developments on the international scene and their implications for the region.

  Israel has also faced domestic criticism for failing to officially condemn Russia, prioritizing its own regional and global interests by displaying what one critic called “a shamefully craven posture towards Putin, with weak, opaque condemnations of his attack on Ukraine and on Holocaust memory, while his pet oligarchs have spread tainted influence and money throughout the Jewish world.” Action of any kind could also stir up antisemitism against Ukraine and Russia’s large Jewish communities.

 In short, Middle Eastern states are attempting to pursue their own strategic and economic interests in a changing world rightly shocked by Putin’s self-damaging and irrational decision to wage war on Ukraine.

 

BY: IAN BLACK