UK Covid rates may rise because of vaccine delay, adviser concedes

But Prof Adam Finn says increase in infections unlikely to stop vaccine’s impact on hospitalisations

Covid infections could rise as a result of the delay in people in their 40s and younger getting their vaccinations, a member of the Joint Committee on Vaccination and Immunisation (JCVI) has conceded.

Adam Finn, who advises UK health departments on immunisation and is a professor of paediatrics at the University of Bristol, told BBC Radio 4’s Today programme that vaccination of those aged under 50 “may kick off slightly later than we’d optimistically hoped”.

The delay, he said, “could have an effect on infection rates because as we move down through the population, that’s really where the impact lies.

“In terms of hospitalisation though, that’s really about phase 1: there are younger people being hospitalised with Covid but many fewer than we see in over-50s. So as long as phase 1 gets done as completely as we’re hoping it to, we really should see the impact on hospitalisations continue.”

A delay in the delivery of 5m doses of the AstraZeneca coronavirus vaccine from India is partly to blame for a forthcoming reduction in the UK’s supply.

Finn said the current aim was to complete priority groups 1-9 (aged 50 and above plus those with health conditions) but also “to deliver on those second doses because JCVI has been very clear from the outset that those second doses must be given in order to provide the long-term protection that people need”.

He said the 12 weeks between first and second doses must “not be allowed to slip significantly and I think it may mean that the next phase, phase 2 , may kick off slightly later than we’d optimistically hoped”.

Robert Jenrick conceded that the rollout of vaccines would held up for around four weeks because of the shortage.

The housing secretary told BBC Breakfast that the final goal of vaccinating all adults with one dose by the end of July was still on track. “We have every reason to believe that supply will increase in the months of May, June and July,” he said.

The government learned of coronavirus vaccine supply issues “in the last few days”, said Jenrick, although he refused to comment on whether the shortage was due to reductions from a single nation.

The Serum Institute of India denied there was any delay in delivering vaccines, claiming there had been no agreed time frame to deliver a second tranche of 5m doses, a source authorised to speak for the facility told the Guardian.

They said the Indian government had to give approval for exports and its permission depended on the situation in the country, which has significantly changed in the past fortnight.

After a slow start, India’s vaccination programme has more than doubled the number of vaccines it is administering each day compared to last week, which in turn is likely to have increased its demands on the Serum Institute’s supply.

The country’s rate of new Covid-19 cases has also begun to rise again in recent weeks after falling steeply for the past five months, bucking hopes that the pandemic had permanently receded and raising pressure on the Indian government to ensure it can meet its own needs before sending doses overseas.

India has sold or gifted about 59m vaccine doses abroad compared to the 37m it has administered at home, with another 38m distributed to state governments and awaiting use. Indians have largely backed the government’s programme of “vaccine maitri” (vaccine friendship), but foreign minister, S Jaishankar, told parliament on Wednesday that exports and donations were “based on the assessment of adequate availability at home”.

AstraZeneca has partnered with the institute, which is the world’s largest vaccine manufacturer, to supply the Indian government and other countries, including low- and middle-income ones.

The European Medicines Agency is due to deliver its verdict on the safety of the AstraZeneca vaccine after more than a dozen European countries halted its rollout over fears regarding blood clots.

source: Amelia Hill

Levant