The Ukrainian Vacuum

The ‘Ukrainian moment’, or decision by Russian Prime Minister as to whether invade, is almost upon us. Russian forces are now in a state of such readiness and preparedness that reports suggest that they either have to enter Ukraine or they can return back into Russia. The phony war is about to reveal whether there is a bite to all its bark.

Yet the bark is already dominating newspaper headlines, TV news and most importantly the political attention of large parts of the world’s leadership. Into these vacuum other events and geopolitical machination disappear or take on new and far different values. The spectre, as envisaged by some, of the largest conventional conflict since World War Two puts into play the stability of the entire global financial system and the very international order itself that was born from the ashes of the 1940s. This may sound hyperbolic but pursue some of the potential and now apparently ever more likely scenarios and this is not too far aware from that prospect being very real indeed.

Other global priorities have suddenly found themselves marginalised and starved of the attention they would normally receive. Marathon talks to revive the Iran nuclear deal have both stalled and lost the focus they once had. Suddenly the prospect of intensifying US or Israel strikes on Iran seems a lot less scary than events in Eastern Europe. Likewise, the collective energy and momentum that came out of the COP26 Climate Summit could easily dissipate if the Ukraine war goes hot and international cooperation haemorrhages at the expense of sharp-edged nationalism.

Even if the situation in Ukraine does manage to deescalate it will take with it a legacy tactic that others may be quick to replicate. Amidst the tensions on the Korean Peninsula over the last few decades military exercises, missile tests and general sabre rattling has been a standard tactic. Previously to the Ukraine crisis Putin was already using the Russian military to test out adversaries’ air defences. Could the sudden deployments of large-scale military units to sensitive geopolitical hotspots be the new diplomacy by other means? Certainly, Taiwan will be watching on anxiously as to how the current crisis plays out.

Other countries may pivot away from the current political vacuum creating by the Ukraine crisis in unexpected ways. Already the prospect of Russian aggression has prompted soul searching in the UK as to whether appeasement of Russia helps. The Defence Secretary said current negotiations had a ‘whiff of Munich’ about them – in reference to the failed attempts to make peace with Hitler ahead of World War II. Paradoxically if Russia was really concerned with an assertive and strong NATO then Ukraine aside it would have appeared to have strengthened commitment to the alliance.

So much of the current crisis comes down to one man and there can be little doubt that Europe in particular needs to come up with a proactive Russia policy that is based, at least in part, on prioritising collective responses to Russian manoeuvres. To date the biggest success in Putin’s Ukraine policy has been to exposure cracks within the EU and highlight how energy prices carry such a heavy domestic price. Whatever happens to the Nord Stream 2 pipeline decision it would appear inevitable that countries will reassess their energy independent in light of current events highlighting the fragility of relying upon Russia for so much of their supplies. Again, in the UK discussions around investing in ‘fracking’, previously a banned method of energy extraction, are now back in play with the Ukraine crisis changing the paradigm of what is politically possible.

Likewise, defence budgets may go up significantly across Europe with this memory of the Russian threat so embedded in politicians’ minds. Of course, if the conflict goes ‘hot’ we will likely see the move to more defence spending and energy independent happen in an accelerated fashion with a range of unpredictable fallouts for national budgets.

The crisis in Ukraine has created a geopolitical vacuum but whether we see escalation or de-escalation it will now surely have policy effects that will ripple far beyond this moment and into the next decade or so of human affairs.