The possibilities of a Turkish operation in Sinjar

In the effect of the global coalition war against the Islamic State (ISIS), Turkey has been obsessively anxious over the role of Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) in Iraq and Syria against ISIS.

Turkey believes the PKK participation in fighting radical organizations will promote them as a counter-terrorism brand. Given this a fact, Turkey itself has been in an ongoing long war with PKK in its own territories as well as in rugged terrains of the Qandil mountains in Iraqi Kurdistan near the Turkish border.

When ISIS militants overran large swathes of Iraqi territories in 2014, including Yazidi predominantly-held areas, Sinjar (also known as Shingal), PKK has played a pivotal role in stopping the ISIS advance, saving thousands of lives strapped on mounts, and thereafter positioning in the mountainous area. The transformation of Sinjar mountains into another Qandil with building deeply fortified military facilities is therefore a substantial concern in the eyes of Turkey.

From this perspective, Turkish military wants relentlessly to carry out a huge military operation in Sinjar, cut off PKK human resource and supply chains to Kurdish held territories in Syria. But unlike other areas on its border, it has no overland access to Sinjar to control the ground. Unless it requests an official legitimate permission from the Iraqi authorities and cooperates with the Kurdistan Regional Government on the ground. So far it is not clear, if Baghdad is willing to allow such an operation to happen.

In a bid of compromising the current conflict in Sinjar, KRG and the Iraqi governments signed an agreement, in last October, that stipulates alien armed groups to leave the area and hand over its security to local police forces. Despite the agreement has been endorsed by the United States, UN mission to Iraq and Turkey, the PKK affiliated forces are yet to withdraw. The agreement apparently aimed to curtail the rise of PKK in the region in a cooperation between Baghdad and Erbil with support of Turkey.

Baghdad has experienced tense relations with Turkey over its military activities and periodically constant airstrikes as well as the violations of Iraqi sovereignty, Turkey takes up different approaches to weaken PKK in Iraq. It woos Iraqi actors in bargaining via boosting bilateral trade exchanging and economic relations, resolving Tigris water supply to Iraq issues, contributing in reconstruction support, and facilitating Turkish companies’ investment. These issues were discussed amid Iraqi Prime Minister Al-Kadhmi visit to Ankara late last year. Conversely, Turkey hopes the current government will listen to its concerns over the PKK presence. Anyway, the Turkish president has recently warned Turkey is ready to carry out a military operation jointly with Iraqi forces in Sinjar without disclosing a date. While Turkey is trying to convince Baghdad government to eliminate PKK in Sinjar, there are other Iraqi parties are against the Turkish military presence in Iraq.

Among them the Iranian-backed Popular Mobilization Forces (PMF) which may oppose such Turkish efforts. PMF has also for years built good relations with PKK-affiliated Shingal Protection Units (YPS) and even paying their salaries. It is nevertheless unclear what kind of steps the Iraqi PM Al-Kadhmi will take amidst the Turkish pressure, but the pro-PMF factions in the Iraqi parliament will likely remain reluctant towards any Turkish military interference.

On the other hand, Turkey also aims to counter the PKK through its relations with the KRG, and especially the ruling Kurdistan Democratic Party, which is in a historical rivalry with the PKK. The KRG has no closer ally than Turkey. They share common political values, trade, economic ties. Turkey already has a large number of military bases in the Kurdistan Region. The KDP has earlier called on the PKK to take its fight to Turkey to avoid jeopardizing the Kurdistan security, and recent Peshmerga reinforcements and confrontations could lead to Kurdish infighting between the both forces. In the past, both fought each other during the Kurdish civil war in the 1990s

However, despite of the KDP’s rivalry with the PKK, it is unlikely that the Peshmerga forces will directly join a Turkish fight against the PKK in Sinjar since it would hurt its popular support among Kurds. Additionally, the new US administration will most likely not be interested in a new war in Sinjar that will destabilize the area and could displace thousands of civilians. The US will prefer PKK-affiliated groups to leave Sinjar voluntarily.

Apart from periodic airstrikes against PKK hideouts and land operations in the border areas of northern Iraq, it seems Turkey will continue to pressure Baghdad and KRG to take steps against the PKK. Turkey according to rumours also wants Baghdad and KRG to allow them to open more military bases in Duhok and near Sinjar. However, a Turkish land operation in Sinjar in the foreseeable future seems unlikely although cannot be ruled out completely