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The Assad Couple: Are the Presidential Spouses Facing Imminent Collapse?
**December 5, 2024**
By Madeleine Jansen - Head of Foreign Affairs
Fears are escalating among human rights activists as fighters from the Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) near their grip on the city of Hama, Syria's fourth-largest city. According to reports from the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights, HTS fighters are surrounding the city and have bombarded some of its neighborhoods.
In Berlin, Bashar Assad and his wife Asma once represented a symbol of hope and renewal in the Middle East, but they are now transforming into the "couple of terror." Assad's victorious days are coming to an end as he witnesses the advance of opposition factions in Aleppo and the siege of Hama and Homs, with critical supply routes in the northwest cut off. Despite Assad sending government forces, they remain unable to confront these diverse groups effectively.
Fierce battles have erupted around the city of Hama, with reports indicating that militias have encircled the city from three sides, forcing approximately 150,000 people to flee from the fighting.
#### Assad and His Allies in a Predicament
For over a week, advances by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and its allies in northern Syria have been recorded, amid a lack of effective strategy from Assad to counter them. This situation is attributed to the waning support from his regional allies:
- **Hezbollah** has become incapacitated due to Israeli pressure.
- **Russia**, which has been a strong ally of Assad since 2015, is now focusing on its wars in Ukraine.
- **Turkey**, under the leadership of Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, supports the Syrian opposition and seizes the opportunity to gain new ground.
#### Assad: A Random Rise to Power
Historically, dictatorial regimes like Assad’s tend to entrench their roots over time. Bashar Assad took power in 2000, though it was not initially planned for him, as he originally aspired to be an ophthalmologist. However, following the death of his older brother Bassel in 1994, he returned to Syria and was groomed to be his father's successor.
#### Asma Assad: From Reformer to System Supporter
Asma Assad began as a potential reformer, encouraging youth to pursue change. However, she later became a key supporter of the regime and has never publicly denounced its practices. Despite being diagnosed with breast cancer in 2018 and later with leukemia, she continued to appear publicly alongside her husband.
#### Russia and Assad: A Tense Relationship
Assad has heavily relied on Russian support to regain control of Syria since 2015, as Russian airstrikes helped retake Aleppo. However, Russia's focus is now more on Ukraine, leaving Assad in a vulnerable position.
#### Assad’s Regime: A Mafia State
Assad has consolidated his power through funds generated from illegal activities, such as the production and trafficking of fentanyl, while his family has amassed properties worth millions of dollars in Europe and Russia.
#### An Imminent End?
As opposition advances continue and Hayat Tahrir al-Sham gains control of new areas, the likelihood of Assad's rule coming to an end increases. Even his allies, like Russia, may find themselves unable or unwilling to rescue him again. Thus, the control over Aleppo may represent the beginning of the end for Assad’s regime, putting the presidential couple in a challenging predicament.
