The Age of Accelerations

As it becomes clearer to people that the Coronavirus is not a passing storm, but rather something that will set the weather for some time to come, thinking is increasingly focused on what the crisis will catalyse. Far too often, however, people are jumping to quick conclusions that the world once it adjusts will be the one that they’ve been campaigning for without any real sense as to how or why.

Examples of this include the climate change movement. Lockdown and the closures of factories and suspension of international travel have led observers to argue that the sudden arrival of clean air, the return of animals to areas previously too polluted and the dramatic drop in carbon emissions is here to stay. Yet already the return of China to something approaching the status quo in terms of emissions and the postponement of the UN Climate Change Conference scheduled for this year appear to be pushing the agenda backwards.

Likewise, as the world realised the extent and severity of the COVID crisis, the UN Secretary General made the very sensible call for a global ceasefire. Afterall who has the time to kill each other when a deadly virus is doing that job instead. The call did make an initial impact, local ceasefires like those in Northwest Syria were able to sustain and it gave impetus to nascent peace efforts in other conflicts.

Guterres asked warring parties around the world to lay down their arms and refocus their efforts on mitigating and suppressing COVID-19. It was a bold call but already we have seen momentum growing with numerous ceasefire initiatives appearing to take root. Crucially progress seemed more advanced at local levels whereas at a global level, despite the leadership shown by Guterres, the Security Council remained divided and unable to show the commitment needed to ensure continued momentum. The Security Council failing at this most critical time will mean that history will surely judge them harshly. Even during the worst tensions of the Cold War resolutions and agreements were found when it came to global health, including a consensus around polio vaccinations.

It is not hyperbole to say that millions of lives in some of the most fragile contexts across the globe depend on it. A Security Council Resolution would be a statement of intent that could fan the fires of hope emerging at local levels. Already the global ceasefire call has the support of 110 governments, several Armed Non-States Actors and a host of religious and civil society leaders.

A global ceasefire in the short term puts an end to the daily drumbeat of death and destruction but critically also allows life-saving aid reach the most vulnerable communities, and support them to mount an effective response to coronavirus. Make no mistake even if a global ceasefire is agreed there is a huge amount of work to do. Yet there are energised constituencies of concern ready to do it once global agreement is concluded. We can all surely agree that this is an unprecedented moment and the push for nationwide ceasefires in all of the world’s conflicts could be a crucial first step towards lasting peace.

However, as the violence in Idlib restarts, hope for the global ceasefire initiative appears to be over and its failure shines a hard light of realpolitik on what is most likely to happen in the era of the Coronavirus. Indeed, rather than shinning a light on sunny uplands and hope for a better future, the virus and its fallout will most likely accelerate existing trends with a host of profound negative consequences. These are increasing human rights violations, increasing prevalence of non-state armed groups, decreasing effective multilateralism and global institutions, increasing authoritarian governance, wider use of counterterrorism and emergency laws, as well as the continued spread of disinformation and ‘fake news’.

For me the moment in which hope of a more fundamental reset in some of the world’s existing trends was lost was in early May when Militants stormed the maternity ward of the Dasht-e-Barchi hospital in the Afghan capital Kabul, killing at least 24 people, including newborns, mothers and nurses. Afghanistan, much like the conflict in Syria, had seen a steady stream of atrocities over the years but this felt particularly heinous, especially when put into the context of the COVID crisis.

While we should all hope that a better future can emerge from the darkness of the current crisis, we must be able to buttress hope with plans and policies that can chart the way out of the darkness. In a more optimistic note the global response to the death of George Floyd has led to the prospect of root and branch reform of the US approach to criminal justice, something that could not have been predicted earlier in the year. Lots of this was down to the previous efforts of the ‘Black Lives Matter’ moment and it a timely reminder that you have to have both hope and a plan to flourish in the ear of accelerations.

by : jamse danselow