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The Afghanistan fiasco sends shockwaves throughout al-Qamishly, al-Hassakeh, and Baghdad.
Ten years later, rumor has it that Syrian Kurds and Iraqi Prime Minister Mustapha al-Kadhimi spent the night of 18 August 2021 watching reruns of Afghani President Ashraf Ghani departing from Kabul as the Taliban overran his country. The speedy departure, with little pomp or ceremony, sent shivers down the spine of America’s allies in the Arab World. Men who had built their entire fortunes of American support suddenly felt abandoned, afraid, and very vulnerable. The abandonment of Ashraf Ghani was no different from what the Americans did to Shah Reza Pahlavi of Iran in 1979 or to Egyptian President Husni Mubarak in 2011. It was the first of its kind under President Joe Biden, however, a veteran statesman who many believed would be wiser and more nuanced than his predecessors.
Fears in Syria
In Kurdish-held territories east of the Euphrates River in northeast Syria, the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF) are unsure of what to make of Joe Biden after what happened in Afghanistan. His predecessor, President Donald Trump, had twice threatened to walk out on them, leaving them to fight an uphill battle against Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, in which they would have certainly been exterminated. The Turkish leader waited patiently for the Americans to leave Syria in order to send his troops to overrun their bases in Qamishly and al-Hassakeh, forcefully dismantling all embodiments of statehood that they had established since 2014. On both occasions, however, Trump backed down on his decision, convinced by his advisers to stay in Syria in order to prevent an ISIS comeback, counter Iranian presence in government-held territory, and “keep the oil.” Syria is now a low-priority on Biden’s Middle East agenda, but given his decision to disengage military from the region, he might suddenly decide to withdraw troops from Syria, which would be a nightmare for the Kurds. Many of them seem convinced, however, that because of the bad publicity that Biden got in Afghanistan, he will think twice before repeating such a withdrawal from Syria.
Worry in Baghdad
Next door in Iraq, Prime Minister Kadhimi is weighing his options. Since coming to power in mid-2020, he has relied heavily on the Americans to stay in offfice, promising to dismantle Shiite-backed militias like Kataeb Hezbollah and the Popular Mobilization Units (PMU). He took jabs at both, ruining his reputation within the Shiite community from which he hails. Shiite MPs who voted for him last year are waiting for Iraq’s next parliamentary elections in October, after which they plan to eject him from power and have him replaced him with someone who is less pro-American and more sympathetic to Iranian interests in Iraq. Behind closed doors, they describe him as unfaithful, ungrateful, and unpatriotic. Kadhimi was badly in need of a success story to polish his image within the Iraqi street, especially among the Shiite community. Last month he headed to Washington DC where he met with President Biden at the White House and sealed off a deal to withdraw American combat troops from Iraq by December 2021. News of the agreement was supposed to please Iraqi Shiites and serve him well, before events started unraveling in Afghanistan. Shiite militias grinned at news of the Kadhimi-Biden agreement, hoping to overrun Baghdad the day after the Americans leave Iraq. Iraqi Sunnis who back Kadhimi are worried, with due right, fearing that Biden will abandon them to Shiite militias just like he abandoned Ashraf Ghani to the Taliban.
Realizing just how problematic a full withdrawal would be, President Biden immediately added a clause to the agreement, telling reporters: “Our role in Iraq will be to continue to train, to assist, to help, and to deal with ISIS as it arises, but we’re not going to be, by the end of the year, in a combat mission.” Whether or not such an assurance will calm the situation in Iraq is yet to be seen, as aftershocks of the Afghanistan fiasco continue to vibrate throughout Baghdad.
by: Sami Moubayed
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