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Russia-Ukraine war: The unique opportunity for Iran
Due to the Russian invasion of Ukraine, it’s predicted worldwide that European economic sanctions against Russia may be lead to an energy crisis in Europe and disrupt the energy market as well. However, instead of Russia, Iran can easily supply the European countries with needed gas and oil. As second-largest gas reserves behind Russia and the fourth-largest oil reserves behind Venezuela, Saudi Arabia, and Canada, Iran could become a new alternative energy source for Europe.
As usual for the Iranian "pragmatic" regime to use the regional and international crisis for its benefits and interests, Tehran now is looking forward to playing an essential role in the current conflict between Russia and Ukraine in several aspects. Iran, consequently, can achieve political and economic benefits regarding the ongoing nuclear negotiations in Vienna between Iran and the US and world-wide powers as they been negotiating to revive the 2015 nuclear deal. The current military and diplomatic tensions and confrontations between Moscow and the West regarding the Russian invasions, might offer Tehran more chance that the US could maybe compromise in Vienna's nuclear talks.
Tehran's economy can make benefit from the Ukraine crisis and boost Iran's economy after years of international sanctions regarding the nuclear program. Such a unique chance could offer to Iran if Russia, the largest gas reserves in the world, decided to stop exporting gas to the European countries. Furthermore, Iran can supply Europe with oil and gas and become the main energy source for European countries due to the predicted sanctions against Moscow by Europe.
On the other hand, Iran is seeking to continue its strong relationship with Russia and to ensure its influence in different regional crisis such as Syria and currently in the Ukraine war. In his phone call with Russian President Putin, Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi has blamed the US and NATO for Ukraine's war. Meanwhile, Iran is aware of the importance of its relationship with Russia due to the Ukraine crisis and how Moscow needs to have such a partner like Iran to confront the West's sanctions. At the same time, Iran can rely on the vital role of Russia as a permanent member of the UN security council and as a key member of the Vienna nuclear negotiations. Besides that, Tehran is an endeavour for further partnership with Moscow that can include economic and military deals, and such as relations will definitely ensure the Russian position in Vienna's talks with Iran.
As a result, over the shadow of the Russian-Ukraine war and the reckless deterioration of the Russian and Western ties, Russia is seeking to continue its relations with Tehran as an important ally in this crisis. However, Russia and Iran still share common interests, but they remain in competition and confrontations in their strategic goal in some places of conflict. Consequently, if the US and Russia can reach a deal over the Ukraine war, the wind may run against the Iranian ships and their wishes.
BY: Zara Saleh
