James Denselow

It has been less than a week since the Russian military operations in Ukraine began, but it feels like a lifetime of geopolitics has happened within that time. Yesterday on Twitter the word “Armageddon” was trending in response perhaps to the news that Russian President Putin had put his nuclear forces into “special combat readiness,” a heightened alert level.

This followed the unsubtle warning that Putin gave when he announced the escalation – that any attempted interference in Russia’s operations would result int “consequences greater than any you have faced in history”. Russia possesses approximately 6,000 nuclear warheads as of 2022—the largest stockpile of nuclear weapons in the world.

Suddenly a generation who haven’t grown up in the shadow of the Cold War are having to learn again about the scourge of these species threatening weapons. The Soviet-US confrontation was always defined by the prospect of ‘MAD’ otherwise known as ‘mutually assured destruction’. The movement of nuclear submarines, missiles and bomber aircraft across countries was the eb and flow of this conflict with the prospect for misunderstandings bringing the planet to the brink on several occasions.

Today we are witnessing what could evolve into the most serious conflict since World War Two. One of the world’s largest, and nuclear armed, militaries is engaged in operations that lack any sense of purpose and end and that have already serious escalated within the last few days. Concerns have arisen that Moscow will base nuclear weapons in Belarus, where they’ve launched attacks into Ukraine from.

On Tuesday Russian Foreign Minister Lavrov told the UN Conference on Disarmament in Switzerland that it is time for US nuclear weapons in Europe to go home. Redefining the conflict in Ukraine around nuclear weapons and the balances of forces is a dangerous new period for the continent and beyond.

Much has changed since the Cold War in terms of geopolitics, personalities and even the certainties around communication that allowed humanity to dodge nuclear war. Weapons have also changed. New hypersonic missiles may render the defences built to counter ballistic missiles obsolete. Drones are reshaping the modern battlespace as events in Ukraine are showing; will they soon be able to deploy tactical nuclear weapons?

One immediate response to events in Ukraine has been the deployment of the NATO Rapid Reaction Force for this first time in its history. Countries like German have already pledged to significantly increase their defence budget by 100 billion euros ($112.7 billion) as confirmed by Chancellor Olaf Scholz said during a special session of the Bundestag on Sunday.

A global arms race around new nuclear technologies as well has heightened tensions as to their accidental use remains a real prospect for the next decade. This will inspire a reengagement around the cultural and societal prospects of nuclear Armageddon. In the 1980s books and films around this prospect dominated the market. The anti-nuclear movement also grew and grew. It is still with us today and will need a new wind to take it into the context of the post-Ukraine moment.

Remember that the “International Campaign to Abolish Nuclear Weapons” (ICAN) won the Nobel Peace Prize as recently as 2017 for "its work to draw attention to the catastrophic humanitarian consequences of any use of nuclear weapons and for its ground-breaking efforts to achieve a treaty-based prohibition of such weapons."

A recalibration of the relationship between existing nuclear states, the prospect of new states looking to acquire these weapons as the cost and ease of manufacturing them reduces, and the global shift in geopolitical discussions may well be changing due to the events of the past week. Suddenly we have moved, in a jarring and discombobulating manner, from seeing nuclear weapons and their use as vestiges of the past to again being real and live issues of the present.

It was fitting that early on in Russia’s military operations the disaster site of Chernobyl was captured soon followed by warnings of increasing radiation emanating from the area. The site of the world’s worst nuclear accident is a reminder, if needed, of the dangers of atomic weapons and the epoch spanning threats that there use has on the human and natural environment. As we enter this new nuclear era we must relearn the ability to challenge and push back on the scourge of these weapons.

BY: James Denselow

Ukraine gets Starlink satellite Internet and warning about safety Levant newspaper, ISSUE 33 March 2022

Upon arriving to participate in the summit of the European Political Community, which includes around forty heads of state in Budapest, he said, "I look forward to sitting with the elected U.S. president and seeing how we will collectively ensure we meet challenges, including the threats from Russia and North Korea." He also noted that the strengthening of ties between Russia and North Korea poses a threat to the United States as well, according to reports from Agence France-Presse.

Before Trump's victory, Rutte expressed confidence that a united Washington would remain part of the defensive alliance, even if Trump became the 47th president of the United States. In an interview with German public broadcaster ZDF last Monday night, he stated that both Republicans and Democrats understand that NATO serves not only the security of Europe but also that of America. He added that both candidates are aware that the security of the United States is closely tied to NATO.

On Wednesday, NATO congratulated Trump on his victory but did not address the Ukrainian issue.

It is noteworthy that the relationship between the elected U.S. president and the defense alliance was not the best during his first term in the White House. Trump criticized NATO member states multiple times and even hinted at withdrawing from the alliance unless they increased their financial contributions.

Additionally, the issue of the Russian-Ukrainian war is one of the matters that complicate relations between the two sides, especially since Trump has repeatedly stated that he can end this ongoing conflict, which began in 2022, quickly. He implied that he had a peace plan between Kyiv and Moscow, while his vice president, JD Vance, revealed aspects of that plan, which stipulated Ukraine's commitment not to join NATO, thereby sending reassuring signals to the Russians.

Furthermore, many NATO member states in Europe fear that Trump might halt military aid to Ukraine after he previously criticized the U.S. for pouring funds into supporting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.