No-one should be remotely surprised that Nancy Pelosi’s controversial visit to Taiwan has put the world on edge. China’s response, the ongoing war in Ukraine and the sense that the international order is at a tipping-point have made many governments very nervous. In these uncertain times that should have been entirely predictable. Beijing’s decision to end cooperation with Washington on climate change is a heavyweight reaction that emphasizes China’s global role.

 Last Friday, Beijing announced a series of “countermeasures” for the “egregious provocation” by Pelosi, the speaker of the US House of Representatives, in visiting Taiwan. Pelosi is in direct succession to the presidency after the vice-president. No comparable visit by a US official has taken place for 25 years. Xi Jinping warned the US that it was “playing with fire”. Some commentators even warned of the prospect of world war.

 In July President Joe Biden said the US military thought that Pelosi’s trip “is not a good idea right now”. And the CIA director, Bill Burns, assessed that China was “unsettled” when looking at Russia’s five-month-old war in Ukraine, which he characterised as a “strategic failure” for Vladimir Putin as he had hoped to topple the Kyiv government within a week.

 Under a law passed by Congress when Washington switched recognition from Taipei to Beijing in 1979 - under its “One-China” policy - the US is required to provide weapons to Taiwan for self-defence. Yet China considers Taiwan to be part of its territory awaiting reunification, by force if necessary. In 1949, China’s defeated nationalists fled to Taiwan after losing the civil war on the mainland. The island has since developed into a vibrant democracy and leading technological power.

 China has said it will stop working with the US on tackling global warming, along with other key issues. The declaration came as Beijing for a second day staged massive military drills surrounding the island. It also announced sanctions against Pelosi and her family for what it called her “vicious and provocative actions”.

 With tensions running high in the Taiwan Strait, China also said it was cancelling some efforts to keep communication channels open between Chinese and US military commanders. Those included attempts to coordinate air and sea operations to prevent unintentional flare-ups, for example, by warships operating close to each other at sea.

 Taiwan’s defence ministry said it had scrambled jets to warn away 49 Chinese aircraft in its air defence zone on Friday and a total of 68 Chinese military aircraft and 13 navy ships had conducted missions. The foreign ministry in Taipei also reported it had detected “massive” number of cyberattacks attempts against its website throughout Thursday and on Friday morning.

 The White House summoned China’s ambassador to Washington to condemn the “irresponsible” behaviour of Beijing over Taiwan. A Chinese embassy official in Washington said the only way out of the crisis was for the US to “rectify its mistakes and eliminate the grave impact of Pelosi’s visit.”

 Analysts say the halting of some of the bilateral activities – especially those related to military – threatens to break what the White House calls “guardrails” between the two countries, which could prevent the situation from spiralling out of control. “These measures are going to decrease chances for the US and China to find a much needed modus vivendi,” said a defence expert at King’s College London. “The two most powerful states are now unable to talk to one another – in a productive manner.”

 On the increasingly important issue of climate change, the US and China have accused each other of not doing enough to cut planet-heating emissions at various points in recent years. China attacked American “selfishness” when then-president Donald Trump rolled back various environmental protections in 2017, while Biden last year claimed Xi Jinping had made a “big mistake” by not attending the Cop26 climate summit in Scotland.

  Huiyao Wang, of the Beijing-based Centre for China and Globalisation thinktank, said China saw Pelosi’s visit as evidence that Washington had already broken the “guardrails”. He said Beijing regarded the issue of Taiwan as the “ultimate red line” for bilateral relations, and her visit would galvanise other American politicians to visit Taiwan in the future. “Unlike Newt Gingrich’s visit to Taiwan in 1997, Pelosi is from Joe Biden’s party; therefore Beijing sees this visit as a clear attempt to tear down the ‘guardrails’ in the first place,” as Wang told the Guardian newspaper.

 China’s role as the second-largest economy in the world means this is not just a bilateral issue between Washington and Beijing but a risk of severe global repercussions. As Taiwan is the largest producer of microchips in the world if China blockaded the island it would have devastating effect on the world economy.

 Nobody knows whether Xi would gamble on a military option. He faces an unprecedented third term at this autumn’s party congress. The invasion of Ukraine has undermined the confidence of western governments. It is still terrifyingly unclear whether China, a global economic and military superpower, would imitate Russia, and blockade or invade Taiwan. The reckless visit by Pelosi has only worsened that uncertainty.

 

 BY: IAN BLACK