Vladimir Putin’s plan to invade Ukraine included the assumption that Russia’s neighbour would be no longer be able to join Nato, the North Atlantic Treaty Organization created at the start of the Cold War in 1949, three years before the future KGB officer and Kremlin leader was born in St Petersburg, then known as Leningrad.

 Putin’s “special military operation” was launched on February 24 and has now entered its third month. No end is in sight. It has already changed the world and has had a transformative effect on geopolitics, the global economy as well as Russia’s international reputation.

 Nato has responded impressively to Moscow’s unprovoked aggression against Kyiv. It hasn’t agreed to Volodomyr Zelensky’s insistence on imposing a no-fly-zone over Ukraine, out of fear of uncontrolled escalation, but it has supplied a great deal of advanced weapons and ammunition to help defend the country.

 Some members of Nato have been more supportive than others: the US and Britain have done fairly well. Their response so far, particularly that of Washington, has been remarkable. A steady flow of weapons, especially portable anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles, made a huge difference in the defence of Kyiv.  Last week America, Britain and Canada announced they would provide Ukraine with heavy artillery.

 Former USSR allies and satellites such as Poland, Estonia and Slovenia have also performed well. President Joe Biden used his trip at the end of March to praise Warsaw’s response to the war, a turnabout from his words in 2021, when he rightly said it was becoming less democratic. The EU has also been critical of Poland, fining the government for its treatment of media and courts. But Poland has defined Russia as public enemy number one and has staunchly supported Ukraine, taking in 2.6m refugees.

 Hungary has not, given Prime Minister Victor Orban’s sympathy for Putin combined with his recent fourth election victory. He has condemned Russia’s invasion, but has attempted to take the middle ground, as a neutral figure — even a peacemaker — between Ukraine and Russia.

 Orban has repeatedly stated that the country will not support Ukraine with military equipment, unlike many of Hungary’s EU and Nato allies, and has also refused to back an embargo on Russian oil and gas imports. Around 85% of Hungarians use natural gas as their primary energy source, most of it supplied on favorable terms from Russia.

 Further west, Germany’s new chancellor Olaf Scholz, despite his willingness to spend more on defence and lessen his country’s dependence on Russian energy, has been unwilling to send heavy weaponry to Ukraine. He has been criticized, including by his own coalition allies, as far too reticent.

 And with Russian forces now focusing on the eastern Donbas region, closer to its own border than Kyiv, Finland and Sweden are both looking increasingly likely to abandon their long-standing neutrality and join Nato.

Last week, the Finnish parliament began debating the possibility of submitting a membership bid to Nato. Recent polls have shown a dramatic U-turn in public opinion, with the majority now favouring joining Nato. “Russia’s behaviour is more unpredictable, and it is ready to take higher risks than earlier. If we look at Georgia in 2008 or Crimea in 2014 we could say that in those cases, Russia took calculated risks,”  Pekka Haavisto, Finland’s foreign minister said.

 Haavisto told the Guardian he was also deeply troubled by reports that Russia could use nuclear weapons in Ukraine as its military continues to struggle. “For Russia’s neighbours, the country’s loose talk on the use of unconventional weapons, including tactical nuclear weapons and chemicals, is very uncomfortable. This is a really concerning issue for us. This has triggered talk in Finland about our own security position in Europe.”

 Russia, which has previously denied planning a military operation against Ukraine, has stated its commitment to avoiding nuclear war. But last week Moscow test-launched Sarmat, an intercontinental ballistic missile, a new addition to its nuclear arsenal, which Putin said would give Moscow’s enemies “something to think about”.

 The Russian foreign ministry also issued a fresh warning to both Helsinki and Stockholm that both capitals have been informed “what it will lead to” if they abandon decades-long neutrality agreements and join Nato. The warning came after a new poll in Sweden showed support for joining the alliance has risen to 57 per cent, up from 51 per cent in March, after Prime Minister Magdalena Andersson said the time was right to debate the merits of membership.

 Finland has for decades been bound to neutrality that began as a pact with the Soviets, but has been forced into a re-think after Putin invaded Ukraine. Sweden has a long-standing tradition of neutrality, but sees its national security as inseparably tied to that of its Nordic neighbour. The term “Finlandisation” has long been criticised as inappropriate for Ukraine.

 French President Emmanuel Macron famously said in 2019 that Nato was in a state of “brain death”. But the alliance has formed a united front since Russia invaded Ukraine. It is ironic that the Atlantic alliance looks likely to expand in response to Putin’s unprovoked aggression.
 

BY: IAN BLACK