Jupiter’s Second Coming

Emmanuel Macron has won a second term as French President. The man who had acquired the nickname of ‘Jupiter’ for being seen as a remote, dignified figure, like the Roman god of gods, is back in power for another five years. Yet in a way winning the election, especially against such a divisive figure as Marine Le Pen, was the easiest part and far harder challenges lie ahead for Mr Macron.

First things first, the Parliamentary elections in June where polls and pundits alike predict that Macron’s party, En Marche, will struggle to retain control meaning a very real prospect of a divided Government with a head of state disconnected from being able to pursue a domestic agenda. Not so argue Macron’s team who have been quick out of the blocks following the weekend election to promise to deliver for all of France and try and stitch back together the divisions that have been on display in the polls.

Yet saying you want to unify the nations is of course easier than doing it. The war in Ukraine and the worsening cost of living crisis partially linked to it are issues of substantive difficulty. Interestingly Russia’s President Putin was quick to congratulate Macron on his victory, stating that “I sincerely wish you success in your state activities, as well as good health and well-being”. Macron invested heavily in attempts to stop the war in Ukraine in the first place, but images of his failure to do so whilst seated at a very long table opposite Putin proved a hinderance to his election campaign.

Macron’s first visit of his second term will be to Germany and the Paris-Berlin axis will remain a central component of the EU’s ability to assert itself on the global stage as Macron has alluded to in the past – to avoid being energy dependent on Russia and militarily dependent on the United States. Relative newcomer German chancellor Olaf Scholz is struggling to grip his country’s response to the Ukraine crisis and working closely with Macron will be an important relationship for Berlin to chart current turbulent waters.

Of course, if Macron loses control and influence within the French Parliament, then his priorities may suddenly and dramatically crystallise in the foreign policy space and suddenly we may see a globetrotting President in constant meetings with his fellow world leaders far above the clouds from the domestic scene. In a sense his ‘Jupiter’ like tendencies will be exacerbated by a loss in the elections in June focusing his mind on macro-EU leadership issues and those of global war and peace.

Macron’s re-election was historic in the sense that no other French president has won a second term whilst being in charge of his own government. In many senses he defies political gravity allowed for by the actual divisions in France that he now hopes to heal. His pragmatic dominance of the centre ground has allowed parties at the further end of the political spectrum, both left and right, to flourish meaning that as the alternative he’s the only choice for those in the middle.

Meanwhile looking at the nature of the vote, there are clear splits across geography (urban/rural) age and wealth that make it seem difficult to see a clear sense of where policy can stich people back together. Despite losing, again, Le Pen’s camp has been celebrating getting such a large share of the vote and their message is that they are focusing on a long-term strategy. This is one in which the French narrative, not too dissimilar from that which surrounded the UK ‘Brexit’ vote, is a choice between Macron’s globalists and Le Pen’s nationalists.

Perhaps in the absence of policy change that can do the job of unifying France, a change to the political system itself should be explored. The two-round system of selecting who the president actually is, is a clear example of hard division being baked into the process itself. In the absence of two major and seemingly permanent political parties, such as those in America, the French system promotes voting that may entirely be based around who a population doesn’t want almost guaranteeing lower levels of support and approval for whoever wins.

So much of what Macron’s second term will look like will be determined in June, until then the campaigning will begin in earnest as to these different visions of France.