Iraq’s Violent Flare Up

Iraq has not had a government for eleven months since the elections in October of 2021, yet there is a danger of political paralysis mutating into violence as the intra-sect politics combines with aggravating regional dynamics. Indeed, parts of Iraq descended into deadly street clashes this week as followers of powerful cleric Muqtada al-Sadr traded fire with security forces and fellow Shia Muslim militias. In response last Friday non-partisan protesters streamed into west Baghdad’s Al Nusoor square, demanding a complete political overhaul for the country.

Iraq’s body politic is weak and fragmented with political parties, their associated militias and external backers holding greater relative power in the country. The Government itself often appears to act as a clearing house for patronage, prestige and corruption. October’s elections were predated by anti-government sentiment that would see more independents elected, but little else has appeared to change with 35% of the country’s young unemployed and the country’s infrastructure on the brink. Transparency International has said that Iraq's ranking is 157 in its global Corruption Perceptions Index (CPI) from a total of 180 countries.

Much of the current violence seems to be based on the agency of one powerful Iraqi figure. It has been just over a week since Muqtada al-Sadr announced his decision to take a “definitive retirement” from politics and close all institutions linked to his movement. This single tweet mobilised attacks on Government infrastructure, including the infamous ‘Green Zone’, and triggered the army to announce a nationwide curfew.

Sadr has a loyal base that is proven to mobilise quickly with dramatic effects. Despite being described as a political chameleon who has reversed decisions over the years, he’s generally held a checkered relationship with Iran and has fallen out with other long term Iraqi politicians, most particularly Nouri al-Maliki. In June, his 73 lawmakers quit, and Sadr called for fresh elections. This failed to move events and Sadr was further threatened when Ayatollah Kadhim al-Haeri announced recently that he would step down as a religious authority, Sadr likely realised that he was facing a challenge to his own standing within the Shia community in Iraq.

Some speculate that Iraq could be about to plunge into renewed civil war. Sadr loyalists have already been engaged in skirmishes with Iran-aligned Popular Mobilization Forces. The focus of the US and Tehran on attempts to renew the Iran nuclear deal may be distracting them from giving Iraq the focus it needs. However Iranian media reported over the weekend that the Iraqi parliament’s staff returned to work for the first time since late July as part of a “agreement among various factions to hold national dialogue to resolve an ongoing political stalemate in the country”.

Recent events have shown that it is less of a stalemate and more of a political vacuum that sucks into it chaos and violence. The fundamental issues have not been resolved by the abating of this week’s violence, but rather the pressure to address them has simply been raised. There is of course the prospect that personalities and politics are simply unable to find an agreement – even of the course of another eleven months – to get to a stable government.

Grand Ayatollah Ali Al-Sistani said nothing in public about the unrest that erupted on Iraq's streets. But government officials and Shi'ite insiders say it was only Sistani's stance behind the scenes that halted a meltdown. Sistani has played this role of ultimate mediator before but at 92 years old Iraq’s body politic can’t rely on him to do it forever.

It would seem that the fragility within Iraq currently cannot handle Sadr refusing to engage with the democratic processes as they are. Will the country’s Iran backed factions back down and find compromise or will they see this as the point of departure in which Sadr has to be defenestrated for good? Early elections may again prove a means of reducing tensions, at least in the short term, but analysts also highlight that this may be bad news for those independent candidates who ran on anti-corruption tickets last year.

Meanwhile reminders of the independents mandate are never far away as the country’s ongoing power cuts are a testimony too. In July the country’s grid essentially failed as a heatwave saw temperatures rise about 50 degrees Celsius, Iraq’s population will be hoping for lower political temperatures in the weeks ahead.