Erdogan's U-turns and the possibility of a new Adana Accord

Erdogan's U-turns and the possibility of a new Adana Accord
August 22, 2022, 10:40 am

Zara Saleh1

Following his failure to obtain the green light from Russia and the US to launch a new military invasion against Syrian Kurds, Turkish President Erdogan who is well-known as a pragmatic politician began to look for an alternative plan that might fulfil his main strategy in Syria.

Furthermore, in recent two visits to Tehran and Sochi when Erdogan met with his Iranian and Russian counterparts at Astana Summit, then with Russian President Putin, he was completely sure of not having support from his counterparts. Despite his support for the Syrian opposition since the beginning of the Syrian conflict in 2011, Turkish President Erdogan now seriously looking for an agreement with the Syrian regime as both countries are following the Russian instructions and Putin's plan as an umbrella for a political agreement in Syria.

The significant signal of Erdogan's U-turns came straight away after his meeting with Ukraine leader Volodymyr Zelensky and he said, “We don’t have such an issue as whether to defeat Assad or not,”. Moreover, Erdogan was clear to declare his main strategy in Syria was to fight the Kurds and prevent any "Kurdish state or federalism" and, of course, he shares such interests with Assad as they both consider Kurds as a common enemy.

Since the beginning of the Syrian conflict in 2011, Turkey had four invasion military operations and had occupied Syrian territories. However, Erdogan now is ready for a political dialogue with Syrian President Bashar Al-Assad to "high steps" as he said as both countries never ever cut their security relations even during the conflict.

The possibility of diplomatic dialogue between Turkey and the Syrian regime under Putin's umbrella is, now, more likely as such a plan can fulfil the interests of all sides. In other words, Russia wants such strategic coordination against the United States' presence in northeast Syria and its ally the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF).

In fact, Russia and Turkey have agreed that the Syrian Kurds are controlling northeast Syria and they put their hands over the main economic resources such as oil and water. Consequently, cutting the ties between the US and Kurds or any agreement between Assad and Erdogan, definitely, will be the main agenda of Putin and Erdogan and that will be of common interest to the Syrian regime and even the Iranian regime as well.

Based on the fact of international relationships and political interests which are the key to the relations between countries, Ankara and Damascus are more likely to begin political talks exceeding their intelligence ties under Russian supervision. The new Adana Accord agreement could be discussed between Erdogan and Assad on the Kremlin table of negotiations and without doubt, Ankara and Damascus are ready to reach an agreement especially when it comes to the Kurds.