The discussion has resurfaced regarding a potential U.S. withdrawal from Syria and Syrian Kurdistan following the victory of Republican candidate Donald Trump in the United States, particularly from areas controlled by the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF). Will Trump activate his decision again? Although the foreign policy of the incoming administration regarding Syria and its military presence there has not yet been announced, concerns are rising among the Kurdish population, while Turkey is clearly eager to exploit any sudden withdrawal.

In this article, I will attempt to outline the possible scenarios from my perspective in the event of a U.S. withdrawal in Syrian Kurdistan, as well as the Russian options and Turkish ambitions, and the readiness of Kurdish parties to deal with different scenarios. Additionally, I will identify the best ways to achieve sustainable stability in the region by reducing dependence on the presence of external powers.

**Concerns About U.S. Withdrawal**

The presence of U.S. forces as part of the international coalition against ISIS is linked to objectives beyond merely eradicating the terrorist group; it is a strategic presence aimed at curbing Iranian influence and impacting the balance of power in the region. The bigger question is what might happen if Washington actually decides to withdraw suddenly. Looking at the previous U.S. withdrawal from Afghanistan, such an action in Syrian Kurdistan could represent a "catastrophic withdrawal," as described by analyst and foreign policy professor Dr. Gregory Aftandilian, especially since all parties are eager. The Syrian regime desires to regain control over the Kurdish region, Turkey is enthusiastic about Trump’s victory and the possibility of influencing the upcoming U.S. administration's decisions regarding support for the SDF, Russia is working hard to restore the Syrian regime's control over all Syrian geography, and Iran is annoyed by the U.S. presence, as it serves as an obstacle to its expansion and influence through Syria into Lebanon.

Any new military intervention in Syrian Kurdistan could lead to a new wave of Kurdish migration and displacement, repeating the experiences of Afrin, Serekaniye, and Tal Abyad. This means that the fate of Syrian Kurdistan could be put at risk, resulting in a real humanitarian disaster. Given the current regional tensions, including the war in Gaza and Lebanon and tensions between Iran and Israel, the possibility of a U.S. withdrawal remains fraught with danger, as it also heightens Israeli fears of increasing Iranian influence if such a withdrawal occurs. Additionally, the situation in Syria has become an open playground for regional and international power struggles, including the U.S., Russia, Israel, Iran, and Turkey, as well as between Turkey and the SDF.

Thus, the topic of withdrawal remains a viable option, although it is a ticking time bomb. We vividly remember the effects of Trump's decisions regarding the withdrawal of U.S. soldiers from Syria after Turkey announced its intention to launch a new military operation in Syrian Kurdistan, which it labeled “Operation Peace Spring,” during which it occupied the cities of Serekaniye and Tal Abyad in 2019.

**The Russian Position and Handling the Situation in Syrian Kurdistan**

Russia has played a key role in the Syrian file since its military intervention to support the Syrian regime in 2015, and it is seeking to restore complete control of the Syrian regime over the entire country, including areas controlled by the SDF. From this standpoint, Russia may exploit a U.S. withdrawal as a strategic opportunity to enhance its influence and reshape the military and political balance in the region. It may allow Ankara to expand its influence in certain areas of Syrian Kurdistan in exchange for Turkish concessions on other files, such as limiting support for the opposition in Idlib. Russia could serve as a mediator between Ankara and the SDF, promoting the possibility of political and security settlements that provide guarantees for Turkey, such as new agreements concerning the withdrawal or distancing of the SDF from the border, as occurred during the battles of "Operation Peace Spring," with imposing Syrian regime security control over the border areas. Conversely, Russia might encourage Ankara to normalize relations with the Syrian regime through mediation initiatives, aiming to achieve a balance that ensures Syrian control over the land while granting Turkey a safe space that curbs Kurdish influence in the border areas. We should not forget the recent statements from the Turkish president when he mentioned that a security belt depth of 30-40 kilometers along its southern border with Syrian Kurdistan is a fixed demand.

**Turkey and the Possibilities of Exploiting the Security Vacuum**

Turkey is one of the biggest beneficiaries of any potential U.S. withdrawal, which would enable it to expand its areas of influence under the pretext of combating terrorism, which it has been pursuing repeatedly. Turkey has transformed the areas it occupies into hotspots for harboring terrorists and mercenaries, regions lacking security and witnessing daily human rights violations and crimes that rise to the level of crimes against humanity. Recent statements by the Turkish Ministry of Defense confirm Ankara's readiness for any U.S. withdrawal from the region, emphasizing Turkey's eagerness.

Jomard Hamdoosh