Russia-Ukraine conflict is far from being labeled as a world war, despite the global standoff resulting from it. However, the critical significance of this war is that its costs are not limited to the warring parties, but suffered by the entire world. Therefore, it is not strange to see several countries, from geographies near or far from the war zone, desperately trying to mediate a ceasefire. That includes mediators like France and Turkey, which are members of the NATO and the western bloc that is firmly standing up against Putin. Even Israel, which is living through a constant show of conflicts itself, had attempted to mediate during the early days of the war.

However, most recently something really interesting happened in relation to the international efforts to stop the war in eastern Europe. The League of Arab States (shortly known as: the Arab League) officially offered to mediate for a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine, last week. On April 5-7th, a selective delegation of the Arab foreign ministers, under the umbrella of the Arab League, paid separate visits to the Russian and the Ukrainian foreign ministers, in Moscow and Poland respectively, with the purpose to explore the potential of bringing the war to calm, as well as limiting the consequences of the war on the Arab countries.

In this regard, the initiative taken by the Arab League to mediate in the Russia-Ukraine conflict is appreciated as the first collegial action to be taken by a regional diplomatic bloc towards peace. The Arab ministerial committee, which held talks with Russian and Ukrainian foreign ministers, last week, was initially formed during the extraordinary meeting of the Arab League’s permanent representatives, that was held in Cairo, on the 4th day of the war, February 28th. At the conclusion of the meeting, the Arab League made an interesting recommendation about forming a ministerial committee, led by Arab ministers of foreign affairs, to monitor the Ukraine crisis and mediate for a diplomatic solution between the warring parties.     

Nonetheless, with all due respect, we have to question the diplomatic weight of the Arab League and why it thinks it can influence the course of the conflict in eastern Europe. The Arab League has a shameful history of sounding failures to end or calm regional conflicts in the Arab countries, starting from the decades-long Israeli-Palestinian conflict to the post-Arab-Spring civil wars in Yemen, Syria, and Libya. Needless to mention the self-censorship usually practiced by the Arab League when it comes to condemning Russia’s hurtful interventions in Arab affairs. In early March, the Arab League’s regular Foreign Ministers meeting condemned Turkish and Iranian interventions in the Arab countries, but purposefully declined to condemn, discuss or even mention the illegal political and military interventions by Russia in Syria and Libya.  

Obviously, most of the Arab states are careful not to take sides with any of the conflicting parties, in the Russia-Ukraine war. One interesting way to validate this argument is to explore the voting pattern of Arab countries on the anti-Russia resolutions proposed by the United Nations General Assembly (UNGA), in the past two months. For example, on the 7th day of the war, March 2nd, thirteen Arab countries, including Egypt and all the six countries of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC), voted in support of the UNGA resolution to scold Russia over its unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.

In contrast, on the 43rd day of the war, April 7th, Libya was the only Arab country to vote in support of a UNGA resolution to suspend Russia’s membership in the UN Human Rights Council, on the background of its brutal invasion of Ukraine. Algeria and Syria voted against the decision, while all the other Arab countries, including Egypt and all the GCC countries, abstained from voting.

No secret; Arab states are in a difficult position. They are among the countries most affected by the Russian invasion of Ukraine, especially on the economic level. Like the rest of the world, they want this war to stop sooner than later. Yet, they cannot side with their favorite western allies in pressuring Russia through economic sanctions or diplomatic escalations. They cannot even use their leverage in the global energy market to encourage the actions taken by the United States and Europe to deter Putin. That is, simply, because they cannot fully trust their western allies, especially the United States Administration of President Biden. In a short sentence: Arabs cannot support Putin, but also, they do not want to support Biden.

Nevertheless, the Arab countries cannot remain safe in the middle ground for too long. It is true that the Russia-Ukraine war is not a Middle East issue. However, the current global standoff between the west and Russia is preparing the international stage for an unprecedented state of polarization. Sooner or later, the Arab countries, collectively or individually, will find themselves obliged to take sides. That is what the Arab League needs to focus on discussing and preparing the Arab countries for, rather than wasting time and resources on adding a new failure in mediating conflicts to its existing record.

 

BY: Dalia Ziada