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Biden’s difficult year - and uncertain future
Exactly a year since Joe Biden entered the White House as America 46th president, it’s hard to be optimistic about his future as the elected leader of the world’s democratic superpower. And indeed the future of the United States itself – not just because of its escalating domestic divisions - but its global reputation as well.
The world, and many Americans, breathed a sigh of relief when he was sworn in an emotional but highly unusual inauguration on January 20th 2021. But a year on from that Biden’s reputation has suffered many blows despite the very different nature of the issues on which he been judged to under-perform.
Back then the ceremony on Washington’s National Mall was bizarre: the absence of the usual large crowds was because of the increasingly challenging Covid pandemic; and the big numbers of military personnel was a vivid and worrying reminder of Donald Trump’s supporters’ unprecedented attack on Congress two weeks earlier, claiming a “stolen election.”
In his inaugural address Biden pledged to “overcome this deadly virus” and “end this uncivil war that pits red against blue, rural versus urban, conservative versus liberal.” Fast forward 12 long and stressful months, victory on both fronts has been elusive if not actually unattainable.
Covid is of course still with Americans – and the rest of the world as well. The Biden administration initially performed well on the pandemic front. It delivered a speedy vaccine rollout, passed a bipartisan emergency relief package and brought a sense of cautious calm after Trump’s turbulent four years.
But the summer months provided yet more challenges: on July 4 Biden declared that America was “closer than ever to declaring our independence from a deadly virus”. Then the US vaccination rate plateaued and deaths spiked with the arrival of the Delta variant.
In August came the chaotic withdrawal from Afghanistan and that did serious damage to the worldwide reputation of the Democrat in the Oval Office – even compared to his disruptive Republican predecessor. That is clearly a factor in Vladimir Putin’s threat to intervene in Ukraine.
Even Democrats who voted for Biden in November 2020 are highly critical of his administration’s handling of Covid, but admit that they would back him again if he stood in 2024 – despite the significant drop in public confidence.
Then there was the economic impact of the pandemic and rising prices. Biden’s version of Franklin Roosevelt’s 1930’s “New Deal” was dubbed “Build Back Better” (BBB) act, the $1.75tn spending package that includes massive investments in childcare, healthcare and climate change initiatives. But the US president was unable to secure a deal on that with Congress and the Senate. It may still happen but is likely to go back to basics.
Biden will turn 80 this year. Given his age – and Republican accusations that he is senile or already has dementia - his vice-president Kamala Harris is subject to far more scrutiny than previous deputies. Harris is her boss’s heir-apparent, but she has not proved to be reassuring. Biden’s approval ratings are bad. He is the second most unpopular president since records began. But hers are worse.
Biden is also seen as the least charismatic and politically savvy president since George H.W. Bush, who was in the White House from 1989-1993. The eight years he spent as vice-president under Barack Obama didn’t prepare him well for his current term in the Oval Office. He is increasingly viewed as a flawed politician in an impossible job.
Democrats are already bracing themselves for the midterm elections this November. With a very small majority in the House of Representatives, and the Senate being 50-50, Biden will not want to lose any seats, given the difficulties his administration is having in getting legislation through Congress as it stands.
The Republican leader in the Senate, Mitch McConnell, has shown the confidence some in his party are starting to feel, by openly talking about the West Virginia Democrat, Senator Joe Manchin, potentially changing parties. Manchin clashed with the White House when he said he could not vote for the BBB act.
Biden’s approval rating has declined by 25% since the start of his term – leaving him almost as unpopular as Trump at this stage of his presidency. It is true, of course, that presidents nearly always suffer losses in their first midterm polls and the tiny majorities the Democrats have in both chambers of Congress are unlikely to hold.
A great unknown in the coming period is whether Trump will stand again in 2024: he will be 78 then. But that may well be to the advantage of the Democrats. If that happens all bets are off about the future of what is still – so far – the most powerful and democratic country in the world. Hopefully Republicans will come to understand that in the coming months.
Polling evidence does suggest that Democrats are over-pessimistic, even fatalistic about the future, to such an extent that it may turn out to be self-defeating. But of course it is true that they do not have an awful lot to look forward to in the course of what may turn out to be a extremely daunting 2022.
BY: IAN BLACK
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- November 7, 2024
Amid growing anxiety among several European countries participating in NATO over Donald Trump's victory in the U.S. presidential election, NATO Secretary-General Mark Rutte stated he looks forward to sitting down with Trump.
Upon arriving to participate in the summit of the European Political Community, which includes around forty heads of state in Budapest, he said, "I look forward to sitting with the elected U.S. president and seeing how we will collectively ensure we meet challenges, including the threats from Russia and North Korea." He also noted that the strengthening of ties between Russia and North Korea poses a threat to the United States as well, according to reports from Agence France-Presse.
Before Trump's victory, Rutte expressed confidence that a united Washington would remain part of the defensive alliance, even if Trump became the 47th president of the United States. In an interview with German public broadcaster ZDF last Monday night, he stated that both Republicans and Democrats understand that NATO serves not only the security of Europe but also that of America. He added that both candidates are aware that the security of the United States is closely tied to NATO.
On Wednesday, NATO congratulated Trump on his victory but did not address the Ukrainian issue.
It is noteworthy that the relationship between the elected U.S. president and the defense alliance was not the best during his first term in the White House. Trump criticized NATO member states multiple times and even hinted at withdrawing from the alliance unless they increased their financial contributions.
Additionally, the issue of the Russian-Ukrainian war is one of the matters that complicate relations between the two sides, especially since Trump has repeatedly stated that he can end this ongoing conflict, which began in 2022, quickly. He implied that he had a peace plan between Kyiv and Moscow, while his vice president, JD Vance, revealed aspects of that plan, which stipulated Ukraine's commitment not to join NATO, thereby sending reassuring signals to the Russians.
Furthermore, many NATO member states in Europe fear that Trump might halt military aid to Ukraine after he previously criticized the U.S. for pouring funds into supporting Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky.
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