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A new year... How does 2025 return?
This is another year, arriving amidst the preparations of the Arab world before the West, forgetting Gaza, rejoicing in guests heading towards life while there are innocents who have found nothing but a spectacle to behold, facing death, displacement, and exile from every direction, overshadowed by aspirations for peace from the barbaric Israeli-American war machine. This scene evokes the suffering of the Syrians under Assad's tyranny, with a unique social and political reality, as extraordinary movements of chaos spread everywhere, reaching levels beyond the imagination of artificial intelligence—not of humans. From Morocco to the East, in a circular loop of this vast world, there are great expectations that hardly differ from their counterparts, as backgrounds fade, the calendar's history heals, and the traditions of celebration vary from place to place, even as this time the celebrations will differ in Gaza and in Syria that was liberated from the claws of the ousted (bin Assad) in 2024. The reverberations of destruction and death in the Middle East have compelled many countries to reconsider many of their future political, economic, and security calculations.
A new year... So how does it return? Inspired by the wars and political changes of 2024, which influenced many nations' elections, including France, Germany, Japan, and India, while Russia remains steadfast with its current bear, Vladimir Putin, who garnered 88% of the votes after his re-election, despite the war between Moscow and Kyiv yielding no territorial gains and the loss of bases in Syria in the Middle East. This has triggered global movements, and we have witnessed demonstrations worldwide in support of Palestine and in joy for Syria.
Gaza and Syria have unleashed a giant wave sweeping through all global capitals, resembling the revolutionary waves of 1848 and 2011 in the Arab world and Europe aimed at overthrowing authoritarian regimes. The conflict in Gaza has broadened with several escalation pathways leading to a regional war, pulling the U.S. and Iran directly into fighting through Israel. The great Syrian machine and its resources have been destroyed, but its people possess goodness, making the conflict pose risks to the region, extending to Yemen and the global economy, opening the door for further geopolitical and political divisions, and fueling global "extremism." The shortest path to escalation is Israel's decision or peace, which has seen the death of all international laws.
This will be another turbulent year for U.S.-China relations, particularly regarding Taiwan and technological competition. However, domestic concerns have convinced both countries that better-managed relations serve both sides. Meanwhile, Trump announces a war on BRICS nations, as populists in Europe continue to stir fear within the European political establishment. Yet the limited setbacks of major parties in the European Parliament and national and local elections will not overturn the European political system or hinder the ambitions of the European Union, which is rejuvenating itself in fear of the coming Trump years and the Ukraine war. Socialist organizations and others have failed to create real roots among workers, reducing popular support for these regimes, and with their fall, a significant political gap has arisen, quickly filled by currents of political Islam. Should we then swim against the current? In light of the absence of American leadership and its backward role after losing its global prestige in Afghanistan and Biden and Harris faltering before Trump, while focusing on the European Union as evidenced by NATO's aerial campaign in Libya and Ukraine. The ongoing war in Syria has reflected a change in the global power map; while the U.S. was about to launch a military strike on the Syrian regime in August 2013, Russia intervened dramatically reshaping the situation, indicating that the U.S. could not act alone. This fundamentally reflects a shift in American policy inward following the 2008 global financial crisis, the immigration issue on its borders in 2018, and the fires, storms, and scandals recently affecting its leaders.
As for Europe, its paths remained indecisive and perplexed in the face of the overwhelming wave of internal movements of its peoples, as it lagged in recognizing and keeping pace with events unfolding in its southern neighborhood. However, it caught up late with developments in Syria, which was struggling for freedom from Iran and the losing militias of Hezbollah, as if it were a moment that inspired the political and economic scholar Francis Fukuyama to write his great work "The End of History and the Last Man," confirming Fukuyama's prophecy's truth. What will 2025 bring us?
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Levant: Ibrahim Jalal Fadlon
